A few days before the presidential election in Taiwan, the spread of Chinese balloons in the island's sky is, according to the army, part of a “psychological war” waged by Beijing aimed at influencing the vote, a weapon that is, however, seen as double-edged.
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Beijing regularly deploys its forces by sending fighter jets, reconnaissance drones and warships around the island, whose sovereignty it disputes.
According to the Taiwanese Defense Ministry, around twenty mysterious balloons have also crossed the Taiwan Strait, which separates the island from mainland China, since December. Taiwan's defense ministry sees this as so-called “gray area” harassment aimed at “impairing the morale of our people.” .
This type of tactic refers to aggressive actions by a state without declaring open war.
“Beijing means it can violate Taiwan’s airspace and challenge its sovereignty,” said Raymond Kuo, a Taiwan expert at the American institute Rand Corporation.
China, which views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory, has vowed to one day regain control of the island and has not ruled out the use of force.
The Jan. 13 presidential election will pit current Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who defends the island's sovereignty, against two candidates who favor rapprochement with China.
“Manipulate elections”
The timing chosen for the balloons' appearance was “political”, Mr Kuo told AFP.
“The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is trying to demoralize the Taiwanese public as the presidential and legislative elections approach,” said the expert, who said “Beijing presents a new operational challenge for the Taiwanese armed forces” that is testing them should provide.
Taipei's Defense Ministry on Saturday condemned an “attempt to use psychological warfare to undermine the morale of our people” and also called the balloons a “serious threat” to air communications.
When asked about it, China's Defense Ministry denied any accusation of interference and accused Taiwan of trying to “rig the election.”
China's balloons became a politically sensitive issue last year after the U.S. shot down one of the planes it described as a “spy” after it entered its airspace.
Beijing, in turn, claimed it was a civilian airship that had deviated from its flight path.
Since December, more than 20 balloons have crossed the median line separating the autonomous island from mainland China, and at least seven of them have flown over the island.
According to the Taipei Defense Ministry, they move at altitudes between 12,000 and 36,000 feet (3.6 and 11 kilometers) and are detected day and night.
“Irresponsible”
According to Gerry Soejatman, an independent aviation expert, they “pose a threat” because they “risk disrupting air traffic,” with commercial aircraft generally flying at altitudes of 24,000 to 40,000 feet (7.3 to 12 kilometers). .
Defense expert Su Tzu-yun called the deployment of balloons to such heights “irresponsible” because “the political goal is much more important than the military goal.”
Beijing “wants to raise doubts and concerns (…) in order to change the attitude of the Taiwanese people regarding the elections,” he told AFP.
Beijing had already conducted missile tests near Taiwan in 1996 to intimidate voters and dissuade them from re-electing nationalist President Lee, according to James Char, a China specialist at the Singapore Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. Teng-hui.
“It backfired,” he said. “That made the Taiwanese people vote for it [d’un président] not pro-Beijing and not pro-unification.
For Ivy Kwek of the International Crisis Group: “The more coercion Beijing uses against Taiwan, the less effective these measures will be in intimidating the Taiwanese.”
Supporters of presidential favorite Lai Ching-te say they are not afraid.
“China often tries to intimidate Taiwan, but we Taiwanese are not easily intimidated,” said Ms. Zheng, 62.