The island, which is home to more than 23 million people and is less than half the size of Austria, is currently one of the particularly “hot” geopolitical zones given the growing competition between the People's Republic of China and the USA. There is great concern that the outcome of Saturday's presidential and parliamentary elections will lead to a confrontation between Beijing and Washington, even though the presidents of both countries, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, made an attempt in November to at least stabilize the relations.
The People's Republic of China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and does not recognize its independence. Beijing is exerting strong military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan and all states in the world that approach the country. The US is Taiwan's most important ally – but even Washington broke off official relations with Taiwan in 1979, under pressure from Beijing's one-China policy.
Founded by the Kuomintang
After the successful communist revolution in mainland China in 1949, the defeated representatives of the Chinese national government retreated to the island. Under the rule of state founder Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang party, Taiwan was governed as a one-party state for many years. Rapid economic development and gradual democratization followed.
Taipei: Beijing’s “Grey Zone Tactics”
In recent years, Beijing has increased its violence in the Taiwan conflict and has repeatedly threatened a military attack on the island. On Tuesday, a Chinese satellite launch raised a missile alarm in Taiwan. Since December, Beijing has repeatedly allowed balloons, like those used for weather measurements, to roam Taiwan. According to Taiwanese sources, Chinese fighter jets fly over the unofficial median line of the strait or penetrate the air defense zone almost every day. The visit of the then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, last year was responded to with military maneuvers. Taipei speaks of intimidation and “gray zone tactics” by Beijing.
The US accuses China of preparing to take over Taiwan militarily in 2027. But the concern now is that the elections will already unbalance the delicate relationship between China, Taiwan and the US. Under President Tsai Ing-wen (DPP), who is still in office, contacts between the governments of the two countries have been interrupted.
DPP candidate Lai ahead in polls
The most promising candidate – the relative majority is enough for the election – is the current vice-president Lai Ching-te, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in power. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) nominated the mayor of the largest city, New Taipei, Hou Yu-ih. And third, Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) is running for president. Polls recently showed Lai ahead of Hou, with Ko relatively behind.
According to The Economist, the US fears that a victory for Lai, whose DPP is pushing hardest for independence, could lead to an escalation with China. China has previously called Lai a “peace destroyer,” while Lai has described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” Lastly, he emphasized that Taiwan is already an independent country and therefore does not have to declare its independence. Of course, this is also a position that irritates Beijing.
Beijing favors Kuomintang candidates
Kuomintang candidate Hou is favored by Beijing. Although the KMT is the old ideological enemy, Beijing and the KMT are united by the desire for one China. However, Hou rejects Beijing's “one country, two systems” idea. This model is rejected by a large majority in Taiwan after its violent repeal in Hong Kong. Even if Hou is elected, rising tensions are likely to escalate.
But the real danger does not lie in the candidates' positions. Jude Blanchette, from the North American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), points out to the Economist that there is a risk of an unplanned escalation, for example, through an exaggerated reaction to a Chinese provocation taking into account the people who stand for elections. The smaller question is whether the new president will radically change the status quo. “The question is: How will an inexperienced leader deal with changes in the status quo caused by external factors?”