- A meeting between Taiwan’s leaders and the speaker of the US House of Representatives will generate a strong reaction from China, said Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group’s China director.
- Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to meet Kevin McCarthy in person when she makes a transit visit to Los Angeles next week.
- “The reality is McCarthy is third in line for the presidency. A meeting like this would be the highest-level U.S. official meeting with an incumbent Taiwanese president on U.S. soil ever,” Aston told CNBC
Flags of the United States and Taiwan displayed on phone screens can be seen in this multiple exposure illustrative photo taken in Poland on August 4, 2022.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
A meeting between Taiwan’s leaders and the speaker of the US House of Representatives will generate a strong reaction from China, said Anna Ashton, Eurasia Group’s China director.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is likely to meet Kevin McCarthy in person when she makes a transit visit to Los Angeles next week. Tsai is currently on a 10-day trip to visit Central American allies, Belize and Guatemala.
The meeting with McCarthy was not officially confirmed.
“The reality is McCarthy is third in line for the presidency. A meeting like this would be the highest-level official U.S. meeting with an incumbent Taiwanese president on U.S. soil ever,” Aston told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Thursday.
“Beijing has already warned of its opposition to this meeting and we could see a reaction even as big as the reaction after Pelosi’s visit.”
The US crossing China’s red lines could put China in a position where it feels compelled to use force and act more confidently.
Anna Ashton
China Director at Eurasia Group
US-China relations are heading downhill, analysts warn. Next week’s meeting between Tsai and McCarthy will likely add to the already growing tensions.
China has repeatedly said that the issue with Taiwan is an internal matter. Beijing claims the self-governing island is part of its territory and asserts that Taiwan should have no right to engage in foreign relations.
The Biden administration has been keen to downplay Tsai’s recent transit, calling it “unofficial.”
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“In all previous transits, she met with members of Congress and state and local officials and made public appearances,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said at a news conference Wednesday.
China’s foreign ministry had strong words for the US
“The trip is not so much a ‘transit’ but an attempt to seek breakthroughs and promote ‘Taiwan’s independence,'” spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular news conference on Wednesday. “It’s not that China is overreacting, it’s that the US is egregiously condoning and supporting the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists.”
Beijing has repeatedly warned that Taiwan is the “first red line” not to be crossed.
Ashton noted that it is important to note that China has often said it prefers long-term peaceful reunification with Taiwan.
“Time is on China’s side and always has been — except for the fact that the US has become a little less predictable,” the analyst said.
“The US crossing over China’s red lines could put China in a situation where it feels compelled to use force and act more confidently because it protects its interests from a US attempt to block them.”