BERLIN The war in Ukraine enters a new phase with the deployment of American and European main battle tanks. So far, NATO’s goal has been to prevent the victory of Russia. From now on the The aim is to secure victory for Ukraine. What does not change the basic reality: It will be a long war of attrition.
Western alliance military aid to Ukraine began hesitantly with Turkish Bayraktar drones, US Javelins and AngloSwedish NLAW manportable missiles.
The Ukrainians demonstrated remarkable skill and tactical intelligence in using these light weapons, repelling the invaders’ advances.
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Defense leaders from 50 countries gathered at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday the 20th.
The Russians retreated and used rockets to destroy Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure to force a surrender. You Ukrainians asked NATO for air defensebut Western governments have been intimidated by Vladimir Putin’s nuclear blackmail.
The second major wave of military aid was mobile multilauncher missile systems, notably the American Himars and the German IRIST. Again, the Ukrainians made exemplary use of these weapons, hitting Russian military targets behind the line of contact.
The Ukrainians recaptured Kherson to the south, the Russianheld capital, and prevented the capture of Kharkiv to the east, Ukraine’s second largest city. With each Ukrainian victory on the ground, Russia has stepped up attacks on civilian targets and encouraged NATO to remove political obstacles to further aid.
Then came the Nasam antiaircraft batteries protecting Washington. And finally the decision to send the Patriots, the most powerful antimissile system. All of this was used defensively.
With the tanks, the Ukrainians want to liberate the rest of the territory. It won’t be quick or easy. For the dozens of tanks they will receive, the Russians have hundreds and enormous capacity to recruit and hire mercenaries.
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Leopard 2, a Germanmade tank, is the object of desire of the Ukrainian military authorities. Photo: Michael Sohn/AP 09/28/2011
The Ukrainians want to recapture Crimea, which was occupied in 2014 and historically integrated into the Ukrainian steppe.
The peninsular Tatars, some of whom were forcibly expelled by Joseph Stalin in his ethnic cleansing, have a long history of opposing Russian imperialism with the Ukrainians. The connection is also geoeconomic: Crimean water comes from Ukraine, and its products flow into it.
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The US has secured the delivery of 50 Bradley tanks to Ukraine. Photo: Badkhan Ahmad/AP
The Ukrainianborn Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev returned Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 because he knew not to curry favor with his homeland. Then Crimea impoverished and prospered.
But the loss of Crimea would reveal the full frivolity of this war, even to the alienated Russian public. The political cost to Putin would be prohibitive. So there is no end in sight.