In Thailand, the opposition is smiling. Indeed, the Thais inflicted a heavy defeat on the military, which had been in power for almost a decade, in Sunday’s general election that gave the two pro-democracy opposition parties the lead.
The Move Forward party, whose progressive rhetoric is reminiscent of the massive protests of 2020 demanding sweeping reform of the monarchy, will become the main force in the next parliament. But from reforming the harsh lèse-majesté law to ending conscription, his program, which is seen as radical, could lead to new tensions with the military-royalist elite.
rejection of the outgoing prime minister
Millions of voters turned out to vote in an election marked by opposition to outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who came to power after a coup in 2014 and then was legitimized by disputed elections in 2019. Based on ballot counts from 97% of polling stations, Move Forward took first place with more than 13.5 million votes (out of 52 million voters).
Behind them, the opposition Pheu Thai party of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of exiled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, won 10.3 million votes. Ex-General Prayut Chan-O-Cha garnered 4.5 million votes, taking third place under the United Thai Nation (UTN) party banner.
However, the final official results are not expected for a few weeks. In the night from Sunday to Monday, the electoral commission Move Forward (113 MPs) gives a slight lead over Pheu Thai (112) from the 400 constituencies. The 100 other MPs are elected by proportional representation.
Oppositions ready to ‘collaborate’
At first glance, Move Forward means a resounding victory. The party associated with the color orange claims to be the standard-bearer of the youth. Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, estimated his movement would win 160 seats, a surprising result.
A government agreement with the Pheu Thai party “is on the table,” confirmed the young candidate, 42 years old. “We can work together,” replied Pheu Thai Party’s top candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36. “But we’re waiting for the official results,” continued the man who called for an “election wave” to seize power nine years after the coup that overthrew her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.
The electoral system invented by the army forced Move Forward and Pheu Thai to win a large majority in parliament or form a coalition. In fact, the opposition needs 376 of the 500 seats in the assembly to balance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army. It is enough for the pro-army camp of 126 MPs to secure a majority in voting on the prime minister elected by the two chambers.