Contrary to the cliché, Formula 1 tests can reveal a lot about the coming season.
But we'll have to wait until qualifying and the season-opening Grand Prix for the 10 F1 teams to put all their cards on the table.
So what are the biggest unknowns looming for the Bahrain Grand Prix and the 2024 season as a whole?
We asked our authors for their suggestions.
How big will Red Bull's lead be?
Although Ferrari was fastest in pre-season testing and achieved some encouraging long-term times despite not being considered to be running at 100%, it was Red Bull who were (and still are) considered by all to be favorites before the season ).
Put simply, the expectation is that Red Bull has held back more than anyone else. What we don't know is how much. So the obvious question at the start of the season is: how big will Red Bull's lead really be?
There are some smaller but still important subsections within. Will the car have a bigger advantage on race day than in qualifying? If so, could it be vulnerable on Saturday and could others have improved their own performance enough to actually benefit from a better starting position on Sunday?
And is this car one that only Max Verstappen can consistently get the best out of, or will Sergio Perez avoid the problems of 2023 and make it a battle, even if it's a single-seater again in the team?
While Red Bull will almost certainly have an advantage at the start of the season, there are enough clues to keep us guessing to keep the intrigue going for now. -Scott Mitchell Malm
Is Ferrari’s racing pace really on “another planet” now?
Fred Vasseur described the Ferrari's tire degradation during testing in Bahrain as “on another planet better” than last year. The numbers actually prove this.
On the final day of last year, Carlos Sainz's 10-lap run on C3 tires started at a low 1:39 minutes and within nine laps he managed 1:40.2 minutes, with his final lap being 1:41.0 minutes .
This year, Charles Leclerc completed a 15-lap run on the C3 on the final day, starting with a time of 1:37.1 minutes and ending with a time of 1:38.4. Maybe not quite the same in terms of fuel levels, but this year Leclerc is traveling 50% more to reach a similar level. Will it carry over to the race weekend? -Mark Hughes
Where is Mercedes really?
Everyone at Mercedes is confident that the W15 is a car to work with, giving drivers confidence and creating a platform that responds to constant development. What is not entirely clear is the exact position in the pecking order.
Tests suggested it was in good condition and close to Ferrari in long-distance speeds.
However, no full racing simulation has been completed. Likewise, the team admits that they still have more work to do on their individual lap pace. After digesting the lessons from the three days of testing, we should at least see what it can do.
Assuming Mercedes can roughly keep up with Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin, it should be in good shape for next year. The key was always that there was a stable, consistent platform to build on.
But this is Mercedes, of course, and there is always the risk that after two years of unpleasant negative surprises, unexpected difficulties arise that result in things not being as good as they seemed.
Whatever happens, we will know what the starting position is for 2024 and what the chances are that it can develop quickly enough to become a threat to Red Bull in the future. -Edd Straw
How much trouble is Alpine in?
The season will start badly for Alpine, but Bahrain will show how far away it is. If testing is anything to go by, a first quarter exit could be on the cards.
That's really not good enough for a factory team, even one that has made an effort to live up to expectations. The car is overweight, doesn't look good on track and both drivers have made it clear they expect a slow start.
Can it really be that bad? It's possible Alpine can unlock even more power after the test focuses on understanding the revised mechanical platform that the company sees as the heart of its new concept. However, this is unlikely to represent a gradual change in pace.
If Alpine is really not only in the final group but also at the back, that will increase the pressure. There have been signs of progress at the track since the middle of last year, but that won't be enough if a car is built that isn't up to it.
Bahrain will reveal the full extent of Alpine's problems. – IT
Is McLaren finally ready to start the season strong?
McLaren has not started with a strong result in either season of these regulations. And it has to be related to how the car performed under this set of rules, at least at the beginning of the season.
McLaren actually had no points in the last two season openers. But the expectations are different this time.
In the two years before the overhaul in 2022, Lando Norris finished fourth in Bahrain. This time he would probably accept this outcome quite happily.
McLaren achieved several podium finishes throughout 2023 and expressed confidence that it would be able to maintain its development curve in the off-season.
However, some specific weaknesses appear to remain or at least require a little more time – and further improvements – to address, leaving the team with a persistent deficit in the slow corners.
McLaren still talks about how this is not a track that is ideally suited to his car, although he wants to make it more of an all-rounder.
However, if there is some Bahrain-specific vulnerability, the team should start the year in a better position, at least overall. – SMM
How big is the step forward that RB has made?
The team with the best hope of escaping last year's back four is RB.
Red Bull's renamed second team had quite the pre-season test, but how much progress have they made?
The answer depends on whether it can threaten Aston Martin and nip at the heels of the top four teams, or simply sit firmly at the front of a left-behind second grid.
And if the RB leads the midfield, given the tirade – largely led by McLaren CEO Zak Brown – against co-ownership and A/B team relationships, will that increase criticism of its closer relationship with Red Bull?
The VCARB 01 wasn't nearly as similar to the all-conquering RB19 as some thought, but that alone won't erase the complaints.
RB appears to be the team most capable of breaking free from the back of the grid this year, but don't expect Williams' bet on a “late car” to pay off (although one can would suggest that the benefits will be more noticeable later in the year). Year).
Sauber also showed an impressive turnaround in speed on the final day of testing – albeit probably fuel-starved – and Haas and Alpine both expected a slow start. -Josh Suttill
What is the status of the 2025 summer season?
Lewis Hamilton's Ferrari bombshell has already kicked the crazy 2025 season into high gear, and our first close look at the 2024 competitive pecking order will continue to shape the driver market.
That's because the Bahrain GP will inform drivers whether they're in for a year of pain (like Hamilton and George Russell at Mercedes last year) or whether there are good reasons to join their current teams as soon as possible paper to come.
Alex Albon, for example, a potential target for several teams despite being contracted to Williams, will be keenly interested in measuring the competitiveness of his new car compared to his other possible targets in 2025.
A return to Red Bull could be a potential landing spot for him, but that may depend on whether Sergio Perez can handle the RB20 in a way he hasn't with the RB19 for three quarters of the season. It could also choose RB's Daniel Ricciardo as Perez's replacement.
The competitiveness of the Aston Martin could determine whether Fernando Alonso sticks with Hamilton's Mercedes seat or opts for Aston.
Hamilton himself could either regret or enjoy his Ferrari move due to its relative competitiveness. He'll find out if he has a Mercedes good enough for a star farewell.
Further down the grid, Kevin Magnussen, who struggled with the car's characteristics last year, felt progress in the preseason with a VF-24 that he could trust “from braking to turn-in to the middle of the corner.”
Whether that comes to fruition will be crucial to his future, with Ferrari protégé Ollie Bearman eyeing his place in 2025. -JS
How long will the Horner saga hang over Red Bull?
In a very real sense, the 'Horner saga' could be over by the time you read this – as some quarters, including Sky Sports, are reporting a decision on his future is due to be made on Wednesday ahead of the Bahrain GP.
We don't know whether Horner will be team boss on the race weekend and what impact his stay or departure might have.
What we do know is that Red Bull is coming off one of the most dominant years in Formula 1 history, during which the company built arguably the best car of all time. And such is the pursuit of greatness that the design has undergone a major overhaul for this season to ensure it remains at the forefront.
It is therefore not expected that performance on the racetrack will be affected in the short term by this situation.
It's the longer-term consequences that really need to be considered here. -Jack Benyon
Will the tracking be better or worse this year?
In general, the more aerodynamically effective cars become, the harder it becomes to follow them accurately.
Specifically, we see some developments – such as the Mercedes front wing with its half-width top flap – that appear to be designed to create more washout.
This does not always mean a more turbulent wake, but it does happen very often. There is no evidence that what follows will be an even worse change; It is more likely that they are degrees. – M.H
Where will the next FIA/F1 conflict come from?
The fact that Andretti was approved by the FIA to join Formula 1 and then rejected by Formula 1 itself is just the best-known example of the tensions between the championship and the governing body in recent times.
It's clear that a lot of people want more teams on the F1 grid, but considering how difficult it has been, it's hard to imagine we'll see a new team before the next engine rule cycle, unless Andretti gives that existing F1 teams the opportunity to protect their share of the prize money pie – no choice but to accept it.
It feels like another clash between the FIA and Formula 1 is a matter of if, not when. There is certainly tension between F1 and FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem over the hands-on approach he has taken during his time in office and some of the decision-making processes on display.
Given the recent tensions, the next fight never seems far away. -JB
Will these cars continue to break drain covers?
After two disruptions during testing and given the controversial damage and disruption at last year's Las Vegas GP, the question is whether this generation of vehicles will continue to break drain covers and cause problems.
Some tracks are older than others and have different textures around (or beyond) those parts of the track surface. Maybe some are no longer as robust as they once were, maybe some weaknesses are more exposed than before.
But we do know that these cars are bigger, heavier and produce more downforce than at any time in recent history. As a result, the track surfaces are exposed to greater forces than before.
And in the case of Bahrain, the cars also use different sections of the route. We're in the third year of these rules, car compliance is looking better than ever and downforce is increasing – so drivers can get away with using more run-off area and flat (more like) curbs when entering because the car that doesn't feel as restless as before.
Whatever the cause, it requires intensive attention and appropriate solutions, such as the drastic yet pragmatic “rip out the drain and fill it with concrete” solution in Bahrain. – SMM
