Among the models being discussed as part of the possible expansion of the College Football Playoff by 14 teams in 2026 is at least one that would include multiple automatic qualifying spots for each Power 4 conference.
A person familiar with the discussions told The Athletic that a 3-3-2-2-1 model would provide three automatic spots each for the Big Ten and SEC, two each for the Big 12 and ACC and one for the Group of 5 would include with three large spots. Yahoo Sports first reported on the specific model being discussed among administrators.
The CFP Management Committee, made up of 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame's athletic director, met last week in Dallas. The group emerged from the weekend optimistic that key issues could finally be resolved after the SEC and the Big Ten, the richest and most influential conferences, laid out their preferences. Among these topics, a 14-team and a 16-team model were discussed, with the 14-team model becoming more important in the event of expansion. A key point of discussion was also more automatic qualification places in this model.
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“We’re just looking at the numbers,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said last week about the idea of more automatic bids. “It was addressed. We have to go through the process.”
A 3-3-2-2-1 model could be similar to the UEFA Champions League, where the top domestic football leagues in Europe receive more AQ places and byes in the European tournament than smaller leagues. However, one notable difference is that the football tournament involves far more teams (and leagues) and is held simultaneously within the season rather than after it. Another difference is that European national leagues do not have postseason tournaments to determine their champions, as every team plays against every other team. The rankings determine their champions.
This model could lead to more regular-season bets, as schools in each Power 4 league would theoretically compete for the final guaranteed spot like football. It would place more emphasis on conference standings than the controversial CFP rankings. But it would also call into question the need for conference championship games, especially when the Big 12 and ACC champions are unlikely to earn a first-round bye, reducing the value of winning a championship. The bloated conferences could also mean that the unequal playing strength within their leagues has an impact on the final standings. Notre Dame may also need a threshold to guarantee a spot if the Fighting Irish are ranked above second-place teams in conferences.
“Does this destroy the usefulness of Conference Champions?” said the person with knowledge of the discussions.
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The 3-3-2-2-1 model could be attractive to the ACC and Big 12 instead because of the guarantees. While most years they lost a first-round bye and settled behind the Big Ten/SEC, they had at least two spots every year. The ACC and Big 12 finished 2023 with a top 14 team each among their future affiliations.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten and SEC are expected to get three teams in a 14-team model in most years anyway after their impending expansion, including former CFP teams Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon and Washington.
CFP officials hope to finalize everything for 2026 and beyond by the end of March. This includes not only potential expansion, but also revenue sharing and governance voting powers, with the SEC and Big Ten expected to generate more revenue and have more weight. From 2026, decisions no longer have to be made unanimously. Further expansion of the CFP beyond 12 would still need to be approved by the presidents on the board. CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock said last week that all of this must be completed within a month, which also includes basketball tournaments on the calendar.
ESPN, which has agreed to a six-year contract extension through 2031 with CFP officials worth an average of $1.3 billion per year, according to The Athletic, has been frustrated by how long the process has taken. With further expansion currently being discussed, it's also not clear how much more ESPN would be willing to pay for two additional first-round games.
After sharing updates with their members, the CFP commissioners are expected to begin Zoom calls among themselves in early March to sort things out. The situation remains unclear. And of course, the 12-team CFP for the next two seasons hasn't even happened yet.
“Ultimately it's about what model is right for (2026) and beyond?” ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips said last week. “We continue to listen to each other and try to put something together, practically, that is good for college football, good for the conferences and Notre Dame, and also long-term for the health and well-being of college football.”
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(Photo: Kirby Lee / USA Today)