In a scenario of Russian gas supply disruption from April 1st, most European countries would not meet the 80% or 90% storage level target by October 1st. the concern arising from the note from the Entsog European network of transmission system operators on the report on the prospects for summer 2022 supply.
The consequences
Compared to the results of the simulations carried out by the institution, the countries exposed to the risk of a drop in demand are Estonia, Latvia and Finland. In order to cover the summer gas demand in Northern and Central Eastern Europe, storage withdrawals would be necessary. The central-eastern part of the Old Continent would also face import restrictions. On the other hand, the north-west and south borders affect the capacity of the infrastructures present in the area. The report shows that on April 1, 2022, the average storage level in the European Union (26%) is in the range of the previous season – explained Entsog General Manager Piotr Kuś -. However, reaching the necessary minimum filling of the European gas storage facilities at the end of the summer season is essential to ensure security of supply for the coming winter. The analysis reflects the current geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over gas supply disruptions. Uncertainties that split the front of the EU states.
Actual and current status of storage in Europe as of April 1, 2022 (Source: Entsog)
Cooperation between European countries
Regarding dependence on Russian procurement, Entsog’s assessment shows how the rapid implementation of additional capacities in Europe can strengthen cooperation between Central and Eastern European member states. In addition, under certain conditions, the return flow from France to Germany can potentially help reduce dependence on Russian gas. Imports of alternative sources of supply from Turkey to Bulgaria can further reduce the dependence of the Balkan countries. And Italy is also wondering how it can manage without Russian gas.