In the end, can the Russians really drop a nuclear bomb, perhaps in the form of a tactical nuclear weapon smaller than the Hiroshima and Nagasaki mushroom clouds?
“It is possible”, admits the President of Cesi (Centre for International Studies), Andrea Margetti. «Nuclear weapons are always highly operational, their use is instantaneous. The Russians have talked about it since the beginning of the war and continue to talk about it, the message they are sending us is simple: what is unacceptable for us is possible for them. In fact it is “.
Kherson, Russia Begins Evacuation: What We Know and Why It’s a Key City
But nuclear weapons are not all the same, what can we expect?
«First of all, one should understand where they plan to launch it: in the cities? About Kyiv? On a military target? In a godforsaken place? There is a difference between a nuclear tactical weapon on Vercelli or on Florence, Rome or Milan.
Would the tactical weapon in the mini version be less effective?
“Relatively. It would still be a disaster, it’s still a nuclear device. The difference is between atomic and hydrogen bomb, the levels are different, many variables. In any case, it would be a serious deal. When General McArthur in Korea suggested, to use the atomic bomb, President Truman took him over from command.
Rumors of a possible Russian withdrawal from Kherson and calls by some countries for their citizens to leave Ukraine suggest an imminent deployment.
“This tactical nuclear weapon is a weapon of political pressure, militarily it would make no sense to launch one. Nothing would be resolved on the field unless 5 or 6 were launched to break the enemy front, a real tactical nuclear campaign. Unhooking would only trigger political alarm. And the use of a nuclear weapon does not necessarily have to be a disaster for Kyiv. When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, the war was won, Churchill said.
Translated for Ukraine today?
«Lowing down a Russian nuclear bomb would objectively guarantee the entry of Westerners into Ukraine, at least with air forces, and save them forever. If the Russians fire 5 or 6 tactical weapons, will their forces in the field be able to capitalize on their impact? And what if NATO then invades Ukraine? Everything would become more difficult for Moscow».
How would the West react?
«Since Ukraine is not a NATO country, there would be no extremes for the hypothesis of mutual defense of art. 5 of the contract. Additionally, Nuclear is a tool that is used without any other skills. NATO or NATO states, on the other hand, are largely able to express crucial conventional capacities. Anyone who expects a nuclear war in the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine is mistaken”.
So much for the rational arguments, but is there an intangible, psychological element in Moscow?
“We are the ones who evaluate things in a totally irrational way because we cannot accept the idea that we can go to war and that is an illogical element. Praying for good weather does not protect you from rain. They’re probably more rational in the Kremlin, they know what they want to achieve even if they don’t have the skills to do it. Just being on this page contemplating a single nuke and not 7-8 is like driving the freeway and resisting the thought of having an accident. There are several wars going on that we do not take into account ».
The?
“There is an invisible naval war. We focus on Ukraine, but there are over 12 Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean Sea capable of hitting targets not only in Ukraine, but also in our country. The offensive stance is directed not only against Ukraine, the Russians are preparing to conduct full-scale operations. Their fleet, based in Tartus, Syria, is very respectable without forgetting the Russian submarines that pose a threat to the Italian fleet but also to commercial planes. There is also a situation of enormous tension outside of Ukraine ».
We’ve seen images of the sabotage of the North Stream pipeline
“There are also gas pipelines between Algeria and Italy, between Albania and Italy, between Libya and Italy, thank God there is surveillance by the Italian Navy.”
What is happening on the ground in Ukraine?
“There have been advances and retreats in both camps, and to this day the front is essentially stable. The Ukrainians attack, but also the Russians in other areas, the scenario is crystallizing. The Ukrainians have taken several areas, but then they have to stop to follow the logistics of letting the soldiers breathe. War is not a video game ».
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED