A significant portion of the Amazon rainforest, a key climate regulator and valuable reserve of biodiversity, could reach “a breaking point” by 2050 due to drought, fires and deforestation, a study published on Wednesday warned.
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“Between 10 and 47%” of the Amazon surface “will experience cumulative disturbances, likely triggering unexpected ecosystem transitions and exacerbating regional climate change,” estimates the study by an international group of around twenty researchers published in the journal Nature.
Thus, under the pressure of “higher temperatures,” “extreme droughts,” “deforestation,” and “erosion,” up to half of the Amazon would reach a “breaking point” or “tipping point,” leading the forest into a vicious circle equivalent to a possible one Collapse of ecosystems.
To arrive at this observation, Bernardo Flores and his colleagues analyzed five critical factors: global warming, annual rainfall, the intensity of rainfall seasonality, the length of the dry season and deforestation.
However, the Amazon hosts “10% of the planet’s biodiversity,” stores an “amount of carbon equivalent to 15 to 20 years of humanity’s emissions,” and produces a “net cooling effect that helps stabilize the planet’s climate.” “, recalls the study.
The study identifies three trajectories of permanent forest development: it could become degraded forests in places, with fewer species, more lianas and bamboo, or open forests, with smaller trees, interspersed with grasses, invasive or even a kind of savanna.
Scientists fear the Amazon could shift from a “carbon sink” to an “emissions source.”
“We may be closer to this breaking point than we previously thought,” said lead author Bernardo Flores of Santa Catarina University in Brazil.
The study shows three possible solutions: global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, ending deforestation and restoring degraded areas.
To arrive at this observation, scientists analyzed the effects of five critical factors: global warming, annual precipitation, rainy season intensity, dry season length and deforestation.
The researchers relied on paleontological records (covering around 65 million years), climate models and observational data collected since the 1980s, such as satellite observations of wildfire spread, tree cover and deforestation.
Their findings complement those of the World Weather Attribution Network, which estimated in January that climate change has made the devastating drought that will hit the Amazon in 2023 30 times more likely.