In Monday’s attack on Ukrainian ports on the Danube River across the Romanian border, Moscow’s military deliberately attacked at the point closest to NATO territory since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. While the case of the Russian missile that hit Polish territory last November had been downgraded to an “accident” rank, such a neighboring attack on a NATO bloc country (Romania) was this time carried out with a very specific aim (to shut down that Ukrainian grain export route as well), showing a growing recklessness in Moscow’s calculations of the risk of escalation. The fact that wheat plays a role in this latest gamble only confirms the centrality of this primary commodity in Vladimir Putin’s strategy of conquest, a strategy that continues to view Africa as a pool of resources and geopolitical support.
The two issues – the pressure on the borders of the European Union (with the attacks on Romania on its doorstep and the increasingly overt threats against Poland) and the court interested in African countries (invited to participate in the second Russia-Africa Summit, which will take place in St. Petersburg on July 27-29) – are much more closely linked than it might first appear. For taken together, they illustrate the magnitude of Putin’s challenge to the West, both militarily and geopolitically. At the military level, increased hostile activity at the EU’s borders means that the risk of a direct confrontation with NATO is increasing, or at least the fear that such a scenario could materialize. Geopolitically, promising grain and militias to African leaders in exchange for resources and political loyalty means it wants to expand its influence on the African continent, the part of the world on which several analysts say the future of the global economy depends.
When Moscow first attacked Ukrainian ports on the Danube near the Romanian border, it destroyed a grain hangar just days after unilaterally exiting a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey that allowed Ukraine to ship its grain across the Black Sea. By attacking the port city of Reni across the river from Romania, Russia has targeted Kiev’s alternative export routes to access world markets. Ukrainian and Romanian officials condemned the attack, with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis condemning “the recent escalation” that poses “serious security risks in the Black Sea” and also affects Ukrainian grain supplies and global food security. Romania’s Defense Ministry said it maintained a position of “increased vigilance” towards its allies on the alliance’s eastern flank. A state of alarm we also find in Poland, where the border with Belarus — an ally of Russia and the new home of the Wagner Group — is raising concerns by the day.
The United States is closely monitoring the situation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a telephone conversation with Romanian Foreign Minister Luminita Odobescu, which focused on grain exports and Black Sea security. “We reaffirmed our strong partnership and discussed joint support for Ukraine and global food security,” Blinken said. Almost every night since the Kremlin withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative last week, its forces have launched a spate of attacks against the city of Odessa and its Black Sea port, destroying grain stores and infrastructure. These attacks, coupled with Moscow’s warning to treat any ship approaching Ukraine’s Black Sea ports as a potential military target, have made alternative grain routes even more important to Ukraine’s economy. Among them are indeed those that run through the Danube Delta, a network of waterways that traverses the border region between Moldova, Romania and Ukraine. According to experts, the attack on Reni could, in the short term, discourage merchant ships from using the port and increase insurance costs.
Replacing Ukrainian exports with Russian wheat is a goal that Putin clearly announced in a Kremlin speech a few days before the Russia-Africa summit. Also thanks to “another bumper harvest”, Russia can guarantee African countries the grain supplies that are cut off from Ukraine due to the non-renewal of the wheat agreement. “Despite the sanctions, Russia will continue vigorous efforts to ensure the distribution of grain, food, fertilizers and other goods in Africa,” Putin said, envisaging both sales based on trade agreements and donations on the principle of gratuitousness.
Russia and the nations attending this week’s Russia-Africa summit will discuss Moscow’s grain and fertilizer exports, Oleg Ozerov, ambassador to Russia’s foreign ministry, confirmed to state news agency RIA. “The creation of logistics corridors, hubs not only for food and fertilizers, but also for all other products that the Russian Federation produces, will be one of the topics of discussion,” Ozerov said. “The idea of such logistics corridors and the creation of grain hubs seems promising and feasible to me.”
For Moscow, maintaining and strengthening its influence in Africa is also helpful in counteracting international isolation following the invasion of Ukraine. Africa’s 54 nations make up the largest voting bloc at the United Nations and are more divided than any other region over General Assembly resolutions criticizing the Russian invasion. It is unclear how many heads of state will appear at the St. Petersburg summit; What is clear is that Moscow is trying to portray a possible failure as a result of alleged Western pressure. “Of course, we are aware that almost all African states have faced unprecedented pressure from the United States, and the French embassies on the ground have not fallen asleep and are not falling asleep, and other Western missions are trying to play their part in these efforts to prevent this summit from being held, to prevent African states from being represented at this summit,” said Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
In addition to food geopolitics, the other focus of the Africa-Russia summit will be the role of the Wagner Group, a pressing issue for countries like Sudan, Mali and others that have for years made deals with the Russian mercenary company in exchange for natural resources like gold. The Russian Foreign Ministry has given assurances that Wagner’s activities in Africa will continue, but the late June mutiny led by group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is a fact that requires at least an explanation from Moscow. The United States-backed Africa Center for Strategic Studies has predicted that Russia will seek to draw other influential countries into its sphere of influence, including Ethiopia, Congo, Nigeria and Senegal. Africa is “of all regions in the world the most hospitable region for Russia,” said the center’s Joseph Siegle.
Despite its high profile in Africa, Russia invests relatively little there. At the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019, Putin pledged to double Russian trade with the continent within five years. Instead, it stopped at about $18 billion a year. Moscow provides less than 1% of foreign direct investment flowing into Africa and there is almost no humanitarian aid. During the two days in St. Petersburg, Putin will try to convince African leaders that the best is yet to come, as the subtitle chosen for the event suggests: “For Peace, Security and Development”. The promise is to “achieve a new partnership that is mutually beneficial” and that will allow “to face the challenges of the 21st century”. The paradox is that Moscow has no problem using the threat of hunger to achieve this. A threat that also exists for Europe, which is aware that food insecurity is one of the factors fueling migration. Connecting these dots, one realizes the importance of ensuring that Italy’s and Europe’s attention to Africa – the so-called “Rome Process” launched by Giorgia Meloni at the Development and Migration Conference over the weekend – is aimed not just at curbing landings, but at giving the continent the attention it deserves.