It is entirely possible that only the end of Putin can put an end to the absurd war he has launched to engulf Ukraine and reclaim it in a Russian sphere of influence that had shrunk since the Soviet Union imploded in 1991. The ambition he showed The events experienced by the President of Russia in the destruction of Chechnya, in the clashes in Georgia, in the annexation of Crimea and in the underground war he has been waging in Donbass against Ukraine since 2014 found culminating in this full blown invasion by a European power that returned us to the bloodiest scenes of World War II.
But Putin’s plans were thwarted, and a lightning-fast occupation and conquest that had actually been planned failed on Ukrainian territory. The unexpected bravery of its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his army, with the unconditional and measured support of the West, and the weaknesses of his own military strategy, plunged the conflict into a protracted war that threatens to become a new focus of sustained armed conflicts such as those sweeping the Middle East shake. But a year and a half after attempting to rewrite Russia’s patriotic history, he now faces the greatest challenge of his adventure. And for the first time, the enemy is inside.
From the start it was clear that Ukraine alone could not stop the war, even with all the arms and aid it received from Europe and the United States. The patriotic commitment of the Ukrainian soldiers and the enormous international support, which cannot go any further in the face of a threatening nuclear power like Russia, were sufficient. Only if an internal element of disagreement arose could the artificial consensus that has been created in Russia around Putin and his war be jeopardized.
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Many brave Russians have tried. But many were imprisoned, thousands fled, and all saw the dissidents in jail see the enormous punishment they were receiving. For this reason, the challenge could only come from the regime. The war belongs to Putin and its continuation has always depended on his internal power. Because of this, the outbreak of this rebellion by the leader of the Wagner mercenary group is the first sign of internal dissent and may raise the most awaited question: Is it the beginning of the end?
Pulled from the poorest Russian prisons and often targeting local populations who saw their criminals, murderers or rapists go to the front like heroes in exchange for pardon, Prigozhin’s troops have reached their limits. Deployed as spearheads, in the very first front line, where the regular troops failed to arrive, Wagner’s men suffered the death and mutilation they themselves inflicted on the invaded Ukraine. They are criminals and behaved as such on the front lines. Russia will not be able to separate its image from that of these mercenaries. And for this reason it is all the more paradoxical that the most critical link in the chain is the one that is broken. But it is so.
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Prigozhin’s defiance, promising to reach Moscow to deal with Russia’s military high command and defense minister, will surely end in disaster. He and the Russian military establishment are two opposite sides of the same coin that are unlikely to meet. But his messages reach Russians, who are neither fully nor objectively informed, and will undermine a certain public opinion reluctant to internal betrayal. It will leave a dent. And it’s time to measure forces.
Coups and revolutions usually don’t have a single date. But as they measure their strength, as the front lines are laid bare, and as Zelensky and the West can only celebrate new signs of weakness, we can say that this Saturday a new page, a new chapter, was written in this cruel war. The beginning of the end, hopefully and without lives being saved, could be closer.
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