The recent defeats of the Russian army hurt a lot. Within days, at least 3,000 square kilometers of territory was taken over by the Ukrainian army. The Russian army’s debacle is similar to that in northern Kiev at the end of March.
In addition, as during the Battle of Kyiv, many ammunition and weapons were left behind by the routed Russian army.
A single battle rarely decides the fate of a war. But some defeats hurt more than others. That is the case with the Russians. It’s demoralizing and undermines Russians’ confidence in their army.
Brave denunciations
For Vladimir Putin, this defeat is dangerous. It could mark the beginning of the end.
The recent defeats have prompted Russian bloggers, previously very pro-Ukrainian, to criticize the Russian military, its leadership and Putin’s easy-going stance. Russian elected officials have also begun publicly denouncing the war in Ukraine.
These people risk their lives because they dare to oppose Putin. Your criticism is therefore very courageous. They are probably a sign that the wave of dissatisfaction in the Russian population is clearly increasing.
The Russian army launched an invasion they were not prepared for. Putin did not foresee that the United States and its allies would stand united behind Ukraine. Russia is clearly no match for Ukraine and its allies.
Few options
Putin doesn’t have many options left to defeat Ukraine.
He can order a general mobilization. But that would only further weaken Russia and delay Russia’s defeat to a later date.
He can try to use nuclear weapons locally. But the condemnation would be so great that Russia would lose almost all of its support, not to mention that the world would come perilously close to all-out nuclear war.
He can finally try to convince Xi Jinping to send Chinese “Volunteer Soldiers” to Ukrainian soil. A similar scenario already happened during the Korean War. But such a gesture would attract troops from NATO countries to Ukraine.
So Putin is check, but not yet checkmate.
What should his next step be? He should try to negotiate peace with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even though, given his recent victories, the latter has said he is opposed to any peace negotiations for the time being. With such a gesture he would save time and gain a better image internationally.
But Putin won’t. For he is a prisoner of the system of lies he has woven around himself.
The Russians will vent all their anger against him if defeat seems inevitable to them. This is what begins to happen. This will bring him down.
