A Russian missile lies in a wheat field near Soledar in eastern Ukraine, June 6, 2022. BERNAT ARMANGUE/AP
Ukrainian farmers are preparing to harvest the millions of hectares of wheat planted in the autumn in July. The corn harvest is to follow in August. But uncertainties weigh heavily on a key sector of the economy, which has been hit by the war particularly in the east and south-east and is threatened in the medium term by the blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, where grain-exporting ships normally cruise the world.
Also read: Article reserved for our subscribers War in Ukraine: Turkey poses as mediator of the wheat crisis
The 2022 harvest will be significantly smaller than previous years due to the destruction, ongoing clashes in Donbass and myriad logistical difficulties faced by farmers. According to the Grain Producers Association of Ukraine (UGA), which brings together the country’s main grain players, production of grain and oilseeds is expected to reach 66.5 million tons this year, down almost 40% from 2021. Of these volumes, the UGA estimates that 30 million tonnes should normally be exported to Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Europe. But with the Russian Navy blockading the Black Sea ports, exports could be limited to 18 million tons, or even 12 million depending on the direst scenario, both for feeding the planet and for the income of the Ukrainian people.
Farmers prepare to sow sunflowers in a field in Cherkaska Lozova near Kharkiv, Ukraine, May 28, 2022. BERNAT ARMANGUE / AP
Saturated land borders
The short-term problem is not Ukraine’s immediate food security. In normal times, the country consumes only a small part of its production. And with the millions of Ukrainians who have left the country, the need has automatically decreased. “Our main difficulty remains exporting. Before the war, we exported 5 million tons of grain per month through the Black Sea ports. We are currently struggling to export up to 1.5 million tons per month. But that’s still not enough,” Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solsky told Le Monde, citing the thousands of trains and trucks used to transport wheat, corn and sunflowers in particular to the west of the country and the Polish and Romanian borders .
According to sources, the hundreds of storage silos scattered across Ukraine store between 20 and 25 million tons of grain that was harvested in the summer of 2021 and was due to be exported since late February. That amount could triple “by the fall” and reach “75 million tons,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned journalists on Monday, June 6. “We need maritime corridors and we are discussing this with Turkey and the UK,” as well as with the UN, he said, adding that exports by sea allow 10 million tons to be exported per month.
You have 60.71% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.