From the illusion of blitzkrieg to the need for attrition. From the false certainty of a half military march to Kyiv favored by an inconsistent and unmotivated enemy army, to realizing that not only is Ukraine’s capital proudly resisting, but the other major cities are doing the same, forcing Russian strategists to change their invasion plans completely. Plans that have been ruthlessly implemented for days, calling for a wild mix of ancient tactics: relentless and inhumane artillery pounding on inhabited centers to terrorize residents and sap their morale, while the close siege of cities brings hunger and thirst while refugees are prevented from fleeing. It is the strategy of attrition. A deliberately criminal strategy because it is based on the massacre of unarmed civilians. But also knowingly hypocritical, because it is being implemented while Russian diplomacy is pretending to be working on a compromise with the Ukrainians that could lead to the end of the conflict (while it is now clear that the real goal has been publicly stated by Vladimir Putin himself, continue war until the surrender of the Kiev “Nazis”).
And there’s even a probable expiration date for this socalled “special operation,” symbolized by a zeta on Russian tanks: that May 9, which commemorates the Soviet victory over the Nazis (the real ones, Adolf Hitler’s) in 1945 which Putin hopes to celebrate “Ukraine’s return home” in Moscow on a grand scale.
Now it remains to be seen whether the Russian dictator will be able to fulfill what seems like a crazy dream, if only because even if he could win this war, he would then rule over a devastated country and a very hostile people occupier.
On the other hand, it is clear that his accomplice generals are changing their strategy these days and hours. While the advance of the columns of Russian tanks and armored vehicles is in complete stalemate outside of Kyiv, Kharkiv and the other cities of the invaded northern Ukraine, the same cities are subjected to savage bombing raids and an almost complete encirclement, knowingly preventing not only the supply of food to trapped residents , but also the flight of refugees.
Those same trap cities are now (despite the Kremlin’s grotesque propaganda denying the evidence) largely reduced to rubble, in which the resistance is growing desperate in every way. And where it is possible, as yesterday in Mariupol on the Azov Sea and in Mikolayiv on the Odessa Strait on the Black Sea, under these desperately defended rubble are already the Russians and the cruel Chechen militias, experts in ruthless urban warfare, persuading themselves to be the game to end.
Putin is therefore likely to break the resistance of the Ukrainian capital and other major cities for an extended period, avoiding challenging their fierce defenders in housetohouse fighting that would prove very bloody for the Russians under the current conditions. His fleshandblood generals, who failed in the triumphant Blitzkrieg that was 100% guaranteed by homeland propaganda, are now hoping for other generals: hunger, thirst, cold and despair. And only when they have done their inhuman work do they expect to unleash their armies, accustomed to easy victory, on the devastated Ukrainian cities.