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Time to settle those MVP debates. Let’s make it count.
55(ish) hours of chaos
Five things to watch this weekend
The 2022-23 regular season is winding down, and we still have so many things up in the air. We’re down to 21 teams for 20 postseason slots. The Dallas Mavericks are the only team on the outside looking in that still has a shot at making the Play-In Tournament.
Let’s rank the four most important things left to figure out, plus one fun wild card:
4. Are the Wolves going to land in the 9-10 matchup? Minnesota traded away its future for Rudy Gobert to fix its present, and the Wolves still find themselves at 40-40, ninth in the West, hoping for a little fortune to come their way. It’s been a bad but resilient season for the Wolves. On Saturday, they play San Antonio, which should be an easy win, but they’ve lost to the Spurs twice this season. On Sunday, they play New Orleans, and that could determine if they have a safety net in the Play-In Tournament.
The Wolves are 1-1 against New Orleans, and this game will determine the tiebreaker. They’re one game behind the Pels, who play the Knicks tonight. If Minnesota beats the Pelicans, they can still survive if they lose their first Play-In game.
3. Are we getting Kevin Durant versus the Warriors? In a word? please In three words? I hope so. The Warriors are trying to fight off the Clippers and Lakers in this final push. The Clippers and Lakers both hold the tiebreaker over them, so they really need to beat Sacramento tonight and Portland on Sunday. Doing so would guarantee them at least sixth in the West. They could get as high as fifth, but the Clippers have to lose to Portland or the Suns (on the last day when they have nothing to play for). So the Warriors need some help here, especially if the Suns sit their stars against the Lakers tonight in the second night of a back-to-back.
The Warriors need to move past the Clippers to get a first-round series with Phoenix. It’s doable, but they need help.
2. Will Dallas make it? The good news for the Mavs is they have two games left they should win – home games against Chicago and San Antonio. Even though they’ve been pretty rough since acquiring Kyrie Irving, the Mavs are still too talented and star-driven to enter those two games not feeling like they should win. And yet…they are at the mercy of the rest of the NBA.
Let’s say they do take care of business and win both games. They need the Thunder to lose to a Memphis team with likely nothing to play for on Sunday.
1. Can the Lakers avoid the play-in? The Lakers worried all season about getting healthy and getting the right mix of players on the floor. They finally did it and figured it out, but losing to the Clippers this week put them at the mercy of the universe. They do not control their own destiny. They play Phoenix and have to hope the Suns decide to sit their main guys. Then they play a Jazz team that gave up recently and has only lottery balls in their focus.
The Lakers are at least in a better position in this Play-In Tournament than they were two years ago, as long as they’re healthy. Going in as the seventh seed, winning and then trying to take down Memphis in the first round? You can talk yourself into that. But they need so much help this weekend to get into sixth and reignite the rivalry with the Kings.
WILD CARD: Are the Knicks going to finish with a top-three offense ever? This is a little tricky to figure out on the fly, but we do know the Knicks have an elite offense this season. NBA.com/stats has the Knicks in a three-way tie with Denver and Philadelphia for the third-best offense this season. Basketball Reference has the Knicks with the third best offense of all timeslightly ahead of Philly, Boston and Denver (as well as 2021 Portland).
These aren’t uniformed between the two sites because of how they calculate possessions differently, but still, the Knicks might end up with the third best offensive season in NBA history. They face the Pelicans (sixth in defense) and Indiana (26th in defense) the rest of the season.
The Latest from Shams
Injury updates on Middleton, Zion
With the regular season winding down, a couple of injury updates on notable players:
- Buck’s star Khris Middleton underwent an MRI on his ailing right knee on Thursday and results came back clean, according to sources.Middleton is expected to use the next week or so to rehab the knee in hopes of being ready for the playoffs beginning April 15. The Bucks clinched the top seed and the NBA’s best regular-season record this week, led largely by another MVP-caliber campaign from Giannis Antetokounmpo. But Middleton contributed 15.1 points, 4.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. He has been a significant part of the Bucks’ success over the last few seasons.
Middleton has battled knee issues that kept him out earlier this season for an extended amount of time. The Bucks got good news this time around, but this definitely got me thinking about his honest and candid conversation earlier in the year with our own Eric Nehm about how hard it was for him to rehab.
- In the Western Conference, Pelicans star Zion Williamson – sidelined since Jan. 2 with a hamstring strain – is unlikely to return to action in next week’s Play-In Tournament, sources tell me. The team has been cautious with Williamson’s comeback process as he continues his rehab process.
The Pelicans are currently 41-39 and sit in the eighth seed. They have the same record as the Lakers, who hold the tiebreaker ahead of them in the seventh position in the top Play-In spot. They are both a game behind the Warriors for the final direct playoff spot.
Back to you, Zach.
Are the Heat back?
The Heat absolutely destroyed the 76ers 129-101 last night, in a game the Sixers didn’t really need. Miami needed it, just in case some fortune falls its way to help it sneak into the top six. Brooklyn would have to lose its final two games (Orlando and Philly), and Miami would need to beat Washington and Orlando to grab the No. 6 seeds.
Even if the Heat’s disappointing season keeps them in the Play-In Tournament, a performance like last night’s seems to jibe with an encouraging Miami trend. This team can really score again. That’s what’s been missing all season long. The Heat inexplicably missed wide-open 3-point shots throughout the season. And their offense struggled tremendously.
Over the last 16 games (10-6), the Heat’s offense has been on fire. They’re sixth in the NBA in offensive rating during this stretch, scoring 118.8 points per 100 possessions with the second highest true shooting percentage. In the previous 64 games (33-31), the Heat were 26th in offensive rating (110.7). They’ve gone from hitting 35.0 percent of their wide-open 3-pointers to hitting over 45.0 percent in this 16-game stretch.
Now, the defense has been bad (118.0) during these past 16 games, but we know they can lock down defensively. It’s encouraging the trend of actually making the good looks you generate with offense and ball movement that is happening at the right time. It looks a lot like the team we saw a season ago, when they were the No. 1 seed and made the Eastern Conference finals.
More Miami: Jason Quick explores the competitiveness and compassion of Heat coach Erik Spoelstra.
More from last night:
- Is it possible for Phoenix to have a bad win? The Suns did so by beating Denver last night. The Nuggets didn’t play their starters, and the Suns still barely eked out the win. but the Suns are 8-0 with Kevin Durant playing.
- the Jazz were officially eliminated from the Play-In Tournament with their 114-98 loss to OKC.
bounce passes
John Hollinger knows who his MVP is this season.
Mike Vorkunov has some thoughts about what’s coming in the new CBA.
Excellent profile on Quentin Grimes by Jackson Frank of DIME.
Nekias Duncan has five young players to keep an eye on, including Markelle Fultz playing like a big man.
Vibe check via The Athletic NBA Show.
Wait, LeBron James is a Tier 2 player now?! Who’s in Tier 1?!
Screen Game (all times Eastern)
- Main screen: Suns-Lakers (10:30 pm NBA TV). The Lakers have to win if they want to avoid the Play-In.
- Second screen: 76ers-Hawks (7:30 pm). The Hawks have a chance to go three games over .500 for the first time since Dec. 2.
- League Pass Game of the Night: Warriors Kings (10 pm). The Warriors can’t afford to drop this one and let the Lakers catch them.
- Check the full schedule here.
(Photo of Kyrie Irving: Dale Zanine / USA Today)