The former Prime Minister explained his success as follows: At the end of each election, a bonus at the ballot box automatically benefited the PLQ.
For Bourassa it was double.
Older Quebecers initially voted overwhelmingly for the PLQ, which also benefited from fears of change.
What Bourassa was saying is that parties at the ballot box are sometimes unequal. Some groups of voters vote more, others less.
participation
The polling stations open for the preliminary vote on Sunday. The first votes will therefore take place this weekend.
The question of turnout may seem sleepy, but it is essential to this election.
And we always come to the same conclusion: Young people vote less than older people.
The numbers speak for themselves. Since 1985, there has been an average difference of 15-25% between the turnout of 18-34 year olds and the over 55 year olds at every election.
Take the example of the 2018 election, where turnout was 66%.
Around 53% of those aged 18 to 34 voted, compared to around 75% of those aged 55 and over. The difference is huge!
One can go to great lengths to analyze all trends, but if voters for certain parties do not vote, this inevitably leads to a lower result than expected.
Everything important except for the PQ
Let’s start with the CAQ, which can benefit more than anyone else from this bounty at the ballot box.
There is a clear CAQ dominance among those over 55: 50% of them support it! And her choice is more definite.
I’d go further: CAQ voting also benefits from being a risk-free vote. The Prime Minister knows it, look at what he’s been saying over the past few days: QS is in Wonderland, Duhaime is a Trump emulator, and the PQ wants a referendum, in short, no riots in Quebec. Let’s go on !
At QS, we’re scratching our heads to mobilize its fledgling militant base. Solidarity tries to create a feeling of zeal. It is not for nothing that GND speaks of an election of the last chance for the climate. QS would be the first to suffer from a declining share.
We are also worried in the PLQ. Their downfall in 2018 is partly explained by the abandonment of the Anglophone voices. When the referendum scarecrow is gone, what is left for the PLQ to motivate its people? I wouldn’t be surprised if Dominique Anglade went back to Acts 96 and 21 to try and mobilize that vote.
The PCQ does not want to fall into the “Bernier trap”. Like Duhaime, Maxime Bernier allied the Republic of Canadian Discontent last year. His voters, who rejected the system, logically rejected the electoral system. Where is Maxime Bernier today? Forgotten and excluded. This is the fate Duhaime fears and wants to avoid.
We are entering the final phase of the campaign. After the promises and debates, each party’s machines must now organize themselves to extract their votes.
In these twenty races, where there will be close races, it is the effectiveness of those races that will determine the strength of this government and perhaps even the official opposition.
