Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield got his career back on track this year. Along the way, Mayfield has become a major bargain for the Bucs.
His one-year contract has a base value of $4 million. He has an additional $4.5 million in incentives available, with up to $2 million coming from playing time and playoff appearances, and up to an additional $1.5 million based on ranking top 10 in the NFL or top 5 in the NFC in passer rating ($300,000). , touchdown passes ($300,000), total passing yards ($300,000), completion percentage ($300,000), and yards per pass ($300,000), plus an additional $250,000 for each playoff Win, up to $1 million.
Regardless of the specific incentives he ultimately receives, the total payout for a wire-to-wire starting quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs at one point (if they make it there) is less than $10 million skyrocketed through the $50 million per year mark creates value that teams rarely realize with veteran quarterbacks in their second contract or beyond.
Mayfield's true reward is at hand. He has said he wants to stay with the Buccaneers. His next deal in Tampa would be significantly more valuable than his current one. And if the Bucs don't do it, someone else will. The franchise, expected to be worth $35 million, would pay Mayfield more in 2024 than he earned as the first overall pick in 2018 under his four-year rookie contract ($32.68 million).
So yes, he plays well enough to make a lot more money. Right now, the Bucs have been able to play solidly in 14 games for the Peanuts compared to what competent veteran quarterbacks produce.
And anyone could have had it. Including, for example, the Falcons, who have guaranteed Taylor Heinicke $6.32 million for 2023. Or perhaps the Saints, who gave Derek Carr $60 million fully guaranteed at signing – with another $10 million fully guaranteed in March 2024. If the Buccaneers win the NFC South, the Falcons and Saints will regret not taking a closer look at him.
Last year, Mayfield made a bet on himself by giving up $4.6 million of his $19.9 million option annual salary to leave Cleveland. It did not work. This year, Mayfield's bet on himself is paying off in the short term for the Buccaneers. In the long run, Mayfield could end up with a contract the Browns never gave him.
Over time, Mayfield has re-established himself as a quality starter who is a great leader and potentially a division champion. He's still only 28. He could still be one of the better quarterbacks in the league.
This year it is him. Especially because he did something that many starters couldn't do. He started every single game until the end of December.
Where will he be next year? He said again that he wanted to stay in Tampa Bay. This could bother other teams looking for a starter, be it the Patriots or the Steelers (if they decide Kenny Pickett isn't the answer), or the Raiders or the Broncos (if they move on from Russell Wilson) or the Vikings (if Kirk Cousins leaves) or the Seahawks (if they want to move on from Geno Smith).
Regardless, Mayfield will likely have more options in March 2024 than he did in March 2023. And that could end up being enough to get the Buccaneers to apply the franchise tag — which will give Mayfield the one-year salary few expect from him had to realize after the Browns locked on Deshaun Watson and Mayfield landed with a Carolina team that fired head coach Matt Rhule just five games into Mayfield's tenure there.