The Bundeswehr imagines the scenario of a Third World War

The Bundeswehr imagines the scenario of a Third World War in the summer of 2025

  • A confidential communication from the Bundeswehr, which the Bild newspaper revealed, presents the scenario of a third world war in the summer of 2025.
  • In this case, Kiev would be quickly defeated due to the lack of material support from NATO.
  • Russia would then put pressure on the Baltic countries from its enclave of Kaliningrad, which remained after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Consider all options, especially the worst ones. A confidential note from the Bundeswehr, which the Bild newspaper revealed, envisages the scenario of a third world war starting in the summer of 2025. This, called “Defense Alliance 2025,” envisages a generalized conflict in Europe between NATO members on the one hand and Russia and its allies on the other.

Kiev lost this summer due to lack of support

To achieve such a result, the Bundeswehr's thought leaders are relying on a new mobilization order from February in Russia that will enable Vladimir Putin's army to recruit 200,000 additional men. Human resources that, in the event of a failure of NATO's material support to Ukraine, would allow the Russians to launch a victorious and decisive offensive as soon as good weather returns.

After Kiev's defeat, the Kremlin would develop operations to destabilize the Baltic countries in the summer of 2024 with cyberattacks and violent incitement against the Russian ethnic minorities living there. Under the pretext of “protecting” these minorities, Russia would then immediately conduct a large-scale military exercise, massing 50,000 troops in the west of the country and then in Belarus, just as it did at the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

From there, the Kremlin would seize the opportunity to station a large force in the Kaliningrad enclave, a Russian territory between Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic Sea. From this remnant of the collapse of the Soviet Union would arise the spark that would set the European powder keg on fire.

In the winter of 2024, Russia would take advantage of the moment of political uncertainty caused by the American presidential election to trigger skirmishes in the Suwałki Corridor, a strip of land on the border between Poland and Lithuania – two European Union member countries NATO – to close the Kaliningrad enclave with Belarus connect.

In response, NATO would station 300,000 troops on its eastern flank. In this way, several hundred thousand soldiers and two armies with the most destructive capabilities in the world would face each other. The conflict would then escalate in early 2025 after a UN Security Council meeting at which the Kremlin would accuse the West of plotting against Putin's regime and thus mobilizing Belarus. In March 2025, open clashes broke out between the two armies in the Baltics before the war spread to all seas and continents. Simple fiction for now.