Next week, world leaders will travel to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for the Conference of the Parties (COP), the United Nations’ annual climate meeting, to complete the first “global stocktake” assessing the situation Progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The United Nations Environment Program doesn’t mince words when it points out how far countries are from these goals. Today, ahead of COP28, it releases a damning report entitled “Broken Record – Temperatures Reach New Highs, But World Fails to Cut Emissions (Again)”, translated into Spanish as “Broken Record: Temperatures Reach”. new highs, but the world is failing to cut emissions.” Emissions (again).
The report concludes that instead of declining, Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.2% between 2021 and 2022 and are currently at a record level. To keep global warming within the Paris Agreement limit of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, emissions would need to be cut by 28% in just seven years Decline of 42% if we have a chance of stopping warming to 1.5 degrees, the agreement’s most ambitious target.
“This year’s report is called a ‘broken record’ for a reason,” said Taryn Fransen, co-author of the report and director of science, research and data at the World Resources Institute. “Not only has the world broken previous records for emissions and temperatures this year, but as authors we know we look like a broken record. “Year after year we say the world is not doing enough to combat climate change.”
COP28: Will the Paris Agreement goals be achieved?
Humanity is moving in the wrong direction. Unless nations are serious about increasing their strategies and ambitions, The world is on track to significantly exceed the Paris targets, which corresponds to warming between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius, the report says. That would be catastrophic given the impacts we have already seen from 1.1 degrees of warming and considering that even fractions of a degree add up to the damage. This September was on average 1.8 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times, exceeding the previous monthly record by 0.5 degrees. However, this does not mean that we have exceeded the 1.5 degree limit of the Paris Agreement, as these are sustained temperatures and not monthly records.
The document adds that the Governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 than the expectations of the Paris Agreement would allow, even as the price of renewable energy continues to fall and the penetration of electric vehicles increases. “The problem is the rhythm,” explains Fransen. “The measures are not being implemented quickly enough because we have lost decades without taking action. We are currently taking measures and they are having an impact. But we have to do it much faster.”
The transition to renewable energy is a sound economic policy with many benefits. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the green economy and is estimated to have already created 75,000 jobs. Burning less fossil fuels also improves air quality and reduces healthcare costs. So do it immediately. “This is frustrating, but also good news because it shows us that it is possible,” says Anne Olhoff, scientific editor-in-chief of the new report. “There is no good reason not to do it. And most countries and policymakers are running out of good reasons not to do so.”