After expressing its desire to join NATO, Pristina applied for membership of the European Union [UE], 15th December. Since Kosovo’s independence is not recognized by all member countries of these two organizations, these two procedures stand no chance of success… On the other hand, they only wave a red flag in front of the Serbian government.
Especially since the tensions between Pristina and Belgrade are already hardly easing. In recent months, the act of “marks” that the Kosovar authorities wanted to impose on the Serb minority has almost degenerated into a very serious crisis.
“What we saw in northern Kosovo could be described as a bruise, but it could also have turned into a real hemorrhage,” Zahir Tanin, the Secretary-General’s special representative for Kosovo, commented to the Security Council after it was tightened in September Tensions had come in 2021.
However, thanks to EU mediation, an agreement was finally reached between the two parties. But while we thought the issue was closed, tensions flared up again in early December. The causes remain uncertain… A priori it would be at least two, including the arrest of a former Serbian police officer suspected of involvement in the protest against the replacement of Serbian-issued number plates and the boycott of local elections by several political parties the Serbian minority.
For example, barricades have been erected in northern Kosovo, as well as roadblocks on a road leading to border crossings on the border with Serbia. Gunshots were heard… and a EULEX rule of law mission patrol in Kosovo was attacked by a flashbang. And the announcement of the postponement of local elections did not calm tensions.
On December 10, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, pursuant to Resolution 1244 adopted by the United Nations Security Council in 1999, requested authorization to deploy a thousand troops to northern Kosovo to join KFOR, NATO’s strength. She let it be known last week that she is still investigating this request…
At the same time, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic pointed to the possibility of a new armed conflict.
“We must do our best, all together, to try to keep the peace. Because of Pristina’s unilateral actions, we are really on the brink of armed conflict,” Ms. Brnabic stated during a conference with Serbian NGOs.
In the last few hours, several Serbian media outlets have claimed that there have been “fights” with gunfire exchanges against the demonstrators with the Kosovan security forces. This was later denied by Pristina… However, KFOR said it was investigating an “indirect fire incident” that occurred on December 25 near one of its patrols and involved “an unknown number of armed persons”. “There were no injuries or property damage and we are working to establish all the facts,” she said.
Be that as it may, in connection with this, the Chief of Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces, General Milan Mojsilovic, was dispatched by President Vučić to Raska, a place about ten kilometers from Kosovo.
“The tasks given to the Serbian army […] are concise, clear and fully implemented,” General Mojsilovic said. “The situation there is complicated and complex and requires the presence of the Serbian army along the administrative line in the coming period,” he explained without giving further details.
In theory, given the presence of KFOR on the ground, the situation should not get past the point of no return. But with the war in Ukraine, NATO has other irons in the fire… And another flashpoint of instability in the Balkans could erupt in Bosnia-Herzegovina, where the embers of division are just waiting to flare up again. Which probably wouldn’t displease Russia, an ally of Serbia.
That’s what European officials fear. “We have strengthened our ability to react quickly in the event of a crisis […] We will continue to discourage those who feel emboldened to take destabilizing measures,” argued Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, after dispatching reinforcements to Eufor Althea, the EU military mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina.