The United States does not know Vladimir Putin’s intentions, but it also ignores Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s. And they fear his movements.
The suspicion had been leaked several times since the beginning of the war, to the point that on a few occasions – starting with the assassination of Darya Dugina in the Moscow suburbs – the American government had “phoned” the steps of Kiev, which was not the case informed and disclose their responsibilities. Further confirmation of this lack of communication is now provided by an investigation by American journalist William Arkin, who, after interviewing a dozen high-ranking US intelligence officials, compiled “the CIA’s established rules” for the ongoing conflict.
The agency’s biggest challenge, according to Arkin in his Newsweek article, is understanding what the two sides will do to avoid actions by Kiev that could threaten Russia and “justify” a Putin escalation: Russia’s defense doctrine, the deployment of Nuclear weapons make it impossible to jeopardize their existence, and Washington refuses to make excuses. The – unwritten – pact stipulates that the Kremlin, in return, avoids an escalation and does not resort to atomic bombs.
“Underlying what is happening in Ukraine is a secret war with secret rules,” an anonymous Biden administration official directly involved in planning the conflict told Arkin. Washington and Moscow, he says, have been shaping these rules for decades, and the CIA plays multiple roles in the Ukrainian game: espionage, negotiation, intelligence supply, logistics, guarantor of relations with NATO allies, and most importantly, guardian. “The CIA is there, but that’s not a bad thing at all.”
Neither the CIA nor the White House has officially confirmed the presence of the agency’s men on the ground, but they have done so indirectly, asking Arkin not to disclose their positions in Ukraine and Poland and the other countries involved in the operations not illegal immigrants nor the airline that is responsible for the logistical effort. According to the American journalist’s calculations, there would never be more than a hundred men in Ukraine. Help, on the other hand, comes through two channels, one public and one secret. The first is based on the ports of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, from where deliveries then reach Ukraine by truck, train and plane. The Secret Service is entrusted with commercial aircraft – the “Grey Fleet” – and moves weapons in Central and Eastern Europe to support CIA operations.
While the US is helping Ukraine in its fight against Russia, the sources say it is not allied with Kiev and is not officially at war with Moscow: although Washington has provided tens of billions of dollars worth of aid, much of what is being done is going to happen What Washington is doing in support of Ukraine remains secret, and for this reason the tasks normally assigned to the army are carried out by the CIA. However, any operation must respect the limits established by President Joe Biden, and it is a very complicated balance: for this reason, the agency distances itself from any action that suggests a direct attack on Russia, as was the case with Dugina, with Nord Stream, the case was. with the attack on the Kerch Bridge and with special operations across the border.
The CIA was also tasked with convincing dozens of countries — like Britain and Poland that would like to take bigger risks, or others that instead have to contend with a less unified internal public opinion — to respect these secret rules, which worked closely with intelligence services and secret services. The agency has established its own bases of operations, established contacts with Ukraine’s neighboring countries and prepared covert missions to help the resistance deploy new weapons systems, while always trying to avoid direct confrontation with Russian troops.
At the helm of the agency is William Burns, a longtime diplomat and former ambassador to Russia, the central figure of the American effort. Before the conflict, he flew to Moscow to repel the attack, and although Putin could not be located, he communicated with the Russian President over a secure line. He then provided Kiev with plans of attack and helped the resistance repel the invasion. Since that trip to Moscow in November 2021, the United States and Russia have somehow accepted the rules of the game: the former would not fight directly on the field, the latter would not attack other countries and respect the red lines.
Even the Ukrainians made an unwritten agreement with Washington after the invasion, accepting restrictions on direct attacks on Russia imposed by the Biden administration in exchange for weapons and valuable intelligence. Despite a few blows across the border, the agreement held until the attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline on September 26, in which the Ukrainians always denied any involvement. However, since the resistance has become increasingly convinced that it can win the war, the blows have multiplied: the attack on the Kerch Bridge in October, the attack on the Engels base in December, the drones on the Kremlin roof in May.
Meanwhile, Burns returned to Kiev, received Zelenskyy’s plans for the counteroffensive, and reiterated the need to maintain strategic stability by avoiding attacks on Russia. The request met with little success, Washington said, as attacks and acts of sabotage continued, leading to complications that could become “catastrophic.” However, an anonymous Polish official noted that it was impossible to get Kiev to honor this unwritten agreement. “The CIA – he explains – does not understand the nature of the Ukrainian state and the number of factions that exist there.”