The PSOE would win the general elections if they were held today, with 31.2% of the vote and a margin of just half a point over the PP, according to the CIS Barometer for June, which came out after the May 28 regional and local elections. M and days after Pedro Sánchez brought forward elections originally scheduled for December to July 23. The panel, led by socialist José Félix Tezanos, whose results are being questioned by all parties except the PSOE, says Sumar would come third with 14.3%, followed by Vox, up 10.6% and the dates for May repeat. The poll shows that the combined left options (PSOE and Sumar) would get 45.5% of citizen support, compared to 41.4% for the right bloc (PP and Vox, since Ciudadanos leaves Congress).
The poll, which includes 7,407 interviews, was produced between May 31 and June 7, so in theory it should reflect the honeymoon effect, which poll experts say normally boosts the winning party’s results. The CIS study shows a sharp rise in the two main parties compared to the CIS in May, but also pushes Yolanda Díaz’s party strongly, which already includes all coalition signatories, including Podemos. The poll does not provide data on Ciudadanos as it is not represented in the general elections after being virtually extinct on May 28.
The CIS, heavily criticized for the contrast between their polls ahead of local elections and the actual results of 28-M, is sticking with a draw very similar to the one in May, with the PP and PSOE in an uphill battle . The two parties are making strong gains in the barometer, but the PP is higher on average. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s rises from 27.2% in May to 30.7% this month, three and a half points; but Pedro Sánchez’s increases from 29.1% to 31.2%, an increase of two points. For his part, Sumar, who sits in third place, doesn’t get all of Podemos’ vote. The combined data from both formations gave a vote share for “the left of the left” of 18.4% in the May poll, while it remains at 14.3% in June this year. The fieldwork comes ahead of Podemos’ announcement on Friday June 9 that they would vote for Sumar in the next general election, despite Irene Montero’s veto.
The improvements granted by the CIS PP, PSOE and Sumar are compared with the stagnation of Vox (10.6%) and the decrease in expectations for the ERC vote (decrease from 2.4% to 1.8% of the votes across Spain) versus the rise of the Junts (although not exceeding that of the Republicans) and that of Bildu, which rose to 1.1% in this study from 0.9% in May.
For another month, citizens are relentlessly suspending key political figures. And again, Yolanda Díaz has the best score (4.89), closely followed by Pedro Sánchez (4.59) and Alberto Núñez Feijóo (4.37). According to CIS, the last in the class are still Santiago Abascal (with a close 3) and Ione Belarra (with a 3.17). In any case, Sánchez inspires more confidence than Feijóo for now, as 63.6% have little or nothing at first compared to 69.3% saying the same about Feijóo.
What affects most is what happens closer. Subscribe so you don’t miss anything.
SubscribeMore information
CIS pollsters polled citizens when they voted for the May elections, with the apparent aim of finding out what impact campaigning had on the final vote. Thus, 62.7% were clear about whether with or without a campaign; but in the 15 official days the vote was requested, 36.8% decided on the color of the ballot. At the start of the campaign, 10% made the decision; in the last week of campaigning, 14.1% chose a party to vote for; But the fact is that on the day of reflection, the eve of the appointment, 3.8% decided and 8.9% of citizens chose their right to vote on the same day of the vote. Even stranger, 14.1% changed parties at least once in the 15 days of the final elections. In the last elections, these last few days have been marked by the controversy surrounding Bildu (which included 44 Exetarras in its lists) and the vote-buying scandals in Melilla and Mojácar (Almería).
The latest barometer, published on May 17, indicated that the PSOE would have won the general elections had they taken place that month, with 29.1% of the vote, followed by a narrow margin by the PP, which won the 27th .2% would have received. Sumar, the project led by Vice President Yolanda Díaz, became the third political force in last month’s study, beating Vox, which has held that spot in the polls so far. The Barometer reflected, with 28-M still a few weeks left, that the gap between Socialists and Popularists was at its narrowest in 2023 in terms of vote estimation, and that it had narrowed to just half a point in the direct voting intent category . Sánchez’s votes received 21.1% of the votes (losing 1.1 points), while Feijóo’s rose to 20.7%, just half a point behind the PSOE, always according to the CIS, whose data are regularly called manipulated by PP are doubted , Vox and Podemos.
Days later, on the 22nd, the CIS released a flash poll for the local elections in which the Socialists lost a point and a half (to 30.2% from 31.7% on the 11th), a vote tally largely overtaken by the Abascals Ultra -Party (up 1.2 points, from 6.8% to 8%) and to a lesser extent the PP (up from 27.3% to 27.9%). In this study, for the first time this year, the PP surpassed the PSOE in direct elections, gaining 21%, compared to Pedro Sánchez’s 20.7% of the vote.
The big poll, however, took place at 28-M, where the mainstream parties won the local elections with 31.53% of the vote, compared to 28.12% received by the Socialists. Vox took third place, while Ciudadanos and Podemos were almost extinct in the communities. As a result, the right has greatly expanded its municipal powers, while Feijóo’s party and Abascal’s party are forging alliances in key communities such as Burgos or Toledo. In the case of the Autonomous Communities, the PSOE was able to keep the municipality of Castile-La Mancha without any problems, with final difficulties it was able to keep Asturias, but the combined results of PP and Vox drove the left bloc from Aragón, Extremadura, La Rioja and above all from the Valencian community. In this last region, after the last elections, the first popular and voxist society (before they were a party) was formed.