The PSOE would win next Sunday’s elections with 32.2% of the vote, 1.4 points ahead of the PP, according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) flash poll for next Sunday’s July 23 general election. The agency led by socialist José Félix Tezanos, whose polls question the rest of the polling companies and all parties except the PSOE, places Sumar in third place, which, despite a slight drop compared to the CIS July Barometer, is 14th would reach .9% of the votes compared to 11.8% granted by the official polling institute Vox. The block on the left increases the value by 47.1%, while the block on the right remains at 42.6%.
The poll, made up of 8,798 interviews, was conducted between July 10th and 12th, after the only face-to-face conversation between Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Pedro Sánchez, exactly a week ago this Monday. For this reason, the impact of the clash in Atresmedia between the leaders of the two parties with government options is taken into account, in which the leader of the PP sharply attacked Sánchez in a tense and tough debate. According to CIS, since the last study, the July barometer, the PSOE has grown by 1.2 points (from 31% to 32.2%), exactly the same increase as the PP (from 29.6% to 30.8% ). The work attributes a 0.6-point decline in Sumar’s voting intent and a slight increase of just a tenth to the Santiago Abascal-led party. ERC is up nearly half a point, with a vote intent of 2.1% across Spain, and Junts, hitting 1.4%, three tenths.
As for postal voting, for which there is already a historic request from more than 2.6 million voters, 29.7% of voters say they have already mailed the PP ballot and 28% say they trust the socialists have. These spontaneously gathered demonstrations bring Sumar 16.6% of support by mail and Vox 5.4%. However, when the poll combines these absentee ballot results with the intention to vote in next Sunday’s elections, the CIS survey ranks the Socialists first (26.5%), followed by the PP (24.9%). Sumar would have 11.8% and Vox 8.7%.
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8.5% of respondents to the CIS Snap poll say they intend to vote by post, compared to 82.9% who will do so in person. Of those who applied for absentee ballots, 75.6% had already decided on the party and 24.2% had doubts between several. The most frequently expressed doubt among those who had already voted by letter was between PSOE and Sumar (53.6%), while another 14.9% answered that they had doubts between PSOE and PP.
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Among political leaders, socialist candidate Pedro Sánchez is the preferred candidate for governor with 30.7%, compared to 28% who would like PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo to occupy La Moncloa. 14.6% of respondents point to Yolanda Díaz, leader of the Sumar list, and 7.2% support Santiago Abascal.
The CIS Barometer for July, released last Thursday, indicated that the PSOE would be the force with the most votes with 31.1% of voting intentions and the PP would be in second place with 29.6%, almost a point and a half behind. Support. The poll found Sumar third with 15.5% of voting intentions and Vox fourth with 11.7%. According to the study, the block on the left had a five-point lead over the block on the right. The PSOE and Sumar would receive 46.5% of the support compared to 41.3% received by the PP and Vox. The socialist victory in this latest poll goes against the trend of the rest of the polls, where the PP comes first, followed by the socialists.
Meanwhile the latest edition of the daily 40dB survey. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, released this Monday morning – the last day for election polls to be released in Spain in light of the upcoming votes – suggests that the PSOE is reversing the downward trend they met face-to-face last Monday has entailed between Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo. However, the PP retains its leadership and the right-wing bloc has 173 seats, only three of the absolute majority. According to the poll, the PP won 32.9% of the vote and 135 seats, down one from the previous day. If this result comes true, Feijóo would have the doors of La Moncloa very close, but always with the help of Vox. Together they would add 173 seats, which would require at least three abstentions.
The work of 40dB. shows that there is a two-way flow between the PP and the Vox voters, which is preventing the popular voters from achieving their goals for the time being. On the one hand, the PP gets 9.5% of Abascal voters, who in turn win 9.4% of the vote. This balance has become more favorable to the extreme right in recent days.
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