by Federico Fubini
Even in the first few weeks of the lockdown, everyone went alone, then the turning point came
The bills burned in Italy’s squares and the endless queues in front of retailers in France whenever Total offered a 20 cent discount are among the few pieces of good news that have reached Vladimir Putin of late. The Kremlin dictator hopes that his strategy of economic terror will work if he just perseveres. Because what Putin is pushing to Europe is simply an energy war aimed at breaking the cohesion of democratic societies to such an extent that governments are forced to change course.
Putin wants public opinion to be convinced that sanctions against Russia have not been worthwhile, that family and corporate suffering must end and come to terms with Moscow. That we must negotiate and press Ukraine for a ceasefire that will give the Russian army time to reorganize after defeats. Since the Ukrainians are not letting go – yes, they are sinking the punches – Putin wants to persuade us to let the Ukrainians go. He wants to do it by blackmailing us with gas. The sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline itself, whoever is responsible, seems to want Berlin to back down and activate Nord Stream 2 between Russia and Germany. It would be a retreat to the first and most symbolic sanctions against Moscow since the beginning of the war. For this reason, the stakes of the European summit, which opens in Prague on Friday, could not be higher.
The economic stability of our companies, the social stability of our countries is at stake, as is the future of the war that is being fought within an hour’s flight of our borders. Unfortunately, the European Union’s responses so far have been inadequate, especially now that we have entered the most dramatic and crucial moment of the conflict. The twenty-seven governments launched eight rounds of sanctions against Moscow without even thinking about defending themselves in the face of Putin’s reaction. The European Commission has long defended market design in the energy sector in Europe, despite the obvious absurdities: Putin’s practice of blackmail in the most political arenas; the startling fluctuations in the price of petrol on the financial platform in Amsterdam (the now famous ttf), which until a few weeks ago was treated as an untouchable totem; the hundreds of billions that Europe’s power companies have to deposit on another financial platform in Leipzig to sell their energy; above all, the untenability of invoices and their complete disconnection from any economic reality.
If it does not recognize these facts and does not provide serious answers, the European Union will inevitably lose legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens. After all, this is not an unprecedented situation: two and a half years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, the European institutions faced a similar dilemma. In the first few weeks of lockdown, some capitals and sectors told the European Commission the equivalent – with the differences – of what some understood during the first six months of the war: everyone had to fend for themselves there wasn’t much the European Union had in common could do, an innovative joint response was not required or impossible. Even then, mutual accusations prevailed for a while.
But then came the joint response in 2020 – with the upswing and the purchase of vaccines – when it was understood in Berlin that the euro area was otherwise in danger of disintegrating. Now, in this energy crisis, we’re probably at the same point. Paolo Gentiloni and Thierry Breton, EU commissioners for Italy and France, propose a joint fund for subsidized loans to countries, similar to the first launched with the pandemic. The fund would finance the layoffs of companies shut down by expensive energy: it would be the first sign that in Europe the problems of ordinary people crushed in this economic war are understood and that someone is up there in the cockpit.
Meanwhile, last night the energy ministers of almost every European country – including Germany – met confidentially via video conference to put final touches on the ten points on which they will ask Brussels to work. That’s a miracle, because up until a few days ago they were still fighting fiercely. Instead, this morning, together with the EU Commission, they will ask to draft a gas price cap for all suppliers (not only Russia), wholesale, also valid for existing contracts (not only for future ones), flexible and not as low as create supply problems. something that Italy has been demanding for months and that is only now on the common agenda because now, as in 2020, everyone understands that Europe is in danger of not holding out anymore. Maybe it won’t be enough, it needs to be tested: but an act of political will to reject Putin’s pressure and defend European citizens. For Mario Draghi and his minister Roberto Cingolani, it means getting closer to a long-awaited goal. For the next Italian government, a relay that can only be gathered by ensuring the highest level of competence and credibility in Europe.
October 5, 2022 (change October 5, 2022 | 23:05)
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