On December 31st, with the chimes that mark the beginning of the new year, another countdown begins for Bernardo Arévalo (Montevideo, 65 years old): that of his inauguration as President of Guatemala on January 14th, a milestone that neither he nor The most optimistic of the members of his party – the Semilla movement – could imagine this a little more than six months ago, and which has become an obstacle course after his victory in the second round of the elections in August.
In the more than four months that have passed since his election, this sociologist, congressman and diplomat, expert in conflict resolution, has repeatedly denounced a coup carried out by the Ministry of State under the direction of the Attorney General. Consuelo Porras. . These attempts to prevent the transfer of power with a series of legal proceedings failed thanks to a strong mobilization of citizens in defense of democracy – especially indigenous peoples – and a strong condemnation from the international community, which did not shy away from denouncing any offensive by the prosecutor's office to prevent the inauguration of the elected president.
Several analysts consulted by EL PAÍS believe that there could be new attempts to overthrow Semilla through legal means in the coming days, but also believe that the chances of success are slim. Especially after a ruling by the Constitutional Court in mid-December that gave Arévalo the guarantee to put on the presidential sash on January 14th.
To become president, Bernardo Arévalo won over the majority of Guatemalans with a clear anti-corruption message in a country that had suffered a serious democratic setback in recent years, with less and less independence between powers and the persecution of judges, prosecutors, activists, journalists and human rights defenders who have fought or highlighted corruption.
“We knew it would be difficult, but not this brutal”
The president-elect and his team, made up mostly of young university students and progressive professionals from urban areas, knew that their proposed change would face resistance from what they call in Guatemala the “corrupt pact,” an informal alliance of politicians and bureaucrats Elites and corporations protecting each other to maintain power. But those within their party say they are surprised by the intensity of the attempt to sabotage the results, which they admit has robbed them of time to prepare for the transition.
“Since the founding process of Semilla, they have put obstacles in our way. “We constantly challenged the barriers that the system had put in place and knew that they would not welcome us with parties and pomp,” said Román Castellanos, one of the 23 deputies the ruling party will have in Congress, where Arévalo also sits The party will be the third force. “We knew that it would be difficult but not so brutal, that the attack against the will of the people would be so institutionalized that the election result would be delegitimized and the legitimacy of the elected president would be undermined.”
Deputy Román Castellanos poses in Guatemala City on December 21.Edwin Bercián (EFE)
Although Castellanos recognizes that this situation has deprived them of the time to work on the emergencies that a country with high poverty and inequality and major development challenges needs, he believes that the attacks have strengthened Arévalo. “The elected president arrives at the national level with greater leadership and legitimacy because he has become a symbol of the fight for democracy, for fundamental freedoms and for respect for the fragile democratic institutions we left behind,” he claims. For him, the coming to power of Arévalo and the elected Vice President Karin Herrera means “halting democratic decline”, a prerequisite that is essential for Semilla to be able to work on the other needs of the country.
The biggest challenge: creating governance
Political scientist Marielos Chang agrees that the constant attacks helped Arévalo gain political wealth and popularity, but believes that these attacks may also have deterred people from joining his cabinet because they did not want to be attacked. For them, the president-elect's main challenge will be to fulfill the electoral offer that brought him victory, the fight against corruption, a goal that, according to them, he can pursue in two ways: the legal prosecution of corruption cases, something that her trial will be difficult as long as Consuelo Porras remains Attorney General; and “drafting the necessary reforms to lay the foundation for eliminating these major corruption cases.”
Guatemala's Attorney General and Head of the Public Ministry, Consuelo Porras, in Guatemala City on September 5. EDWIN BERCIAN ((EPA) EFE)
Another challenge, in his opinion, is to achieve a certain level of ability to govern with a Congress in which his party does not have a majority and with courts such as the Court of Justice that have opened some cases against the Semilla movement. “They have a knife around their neck that limits them, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do a lot,” Chang says. “I believe that the political situation in Guatemala has been at such a low level that there is an opportunity within the executive branch to make significant changes that can be easily seen by the population.”
Among the changes the analyst expects are accelerating the recruitment of people capable of mobilizing public services in key ministries such as education, health or infrastructure, and also promoting greater transparency with the media. “We are also talking about an executive that we hope will not persecute the press, as the government of Alejandro Giammattei did,” he emphasizes.
The retention of the interviewed Consuelo Porras at the head of the State Ministry will undoubtedly be one of the big topics that will occupy the news in Guatemala in the coming months. Arévalo has stated that one of the first things he will do as president is to demand the resignation of the woman he accused of orchestrating the coup against him. “There are already enough arguments for abuse of power, usurpation of office and blatant violation of the constitution to call on him to resign, which Giammattei has not done but Arévalo can do,” says former chancellor and political analyst Édgar Gutiérrez.
Gutiérrez believes that in this scenario, the head of the Public Ministry will seek refuge and resist while waiting for the justice system to protect her, which will create tension. “But with courts acting more independently, they can eliminate it. “I think she will be left alone,” says the former Chancellor. “For her law enforcement policy to be effective, Consuelo Porras must dance the tango, she needs a partner, a complacent justice system,” he adds. “If the judges review the cases and say, 'This doesn't hold up, this is not evidence, this is not a lead,' and start setting limits, Consuelo Porras' ability to prosecute politically will be limited.”
For Gutiérrez, it will also be crucial for the elected president to seek alliances and strike a balance with indigenous movements that have protected democracy through their mobilizations, as well as with business people. “It must learn to create a political culture of relations with the private sector that is no longer based on privilege, as has been the case with all governments, but on competition rules, respect for tax law and labor law,” you think. In the case of the indigenous peoples, he believes that the executive branch must be very active in the territories to mediate against the companies that come to exploit the resources.
“I believe that there is a before and after in the political life of the country and the indigenous peoples as fundamental actors after these elections and after this process that we have experienced,” says Congressman Castellanos, originally from a Mayan community comes (the Q'eqchi) from Cobán, in the department of Alta Verapaz (north). “From now on, indigenous peoples will become central actors in the country’s decisions, because it is the indigenous authorities and community representatives who mobilize to defend democracy.”
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