Brussels. European Council President Charles Michel yesterday urged EU leaders to “have the courage to make the right decisions” at what he called a “crucial” summit. It is crucial for Ukraine, which needs all the financial and military help it can get to continue to defend itself against Vladimir Putin's war of aggression and push Russia back from the territories it continues to occupy. But The European Council, which opens today in Brussels, is of even greater importance for the EU itself. Why – as Michel wrote in his letter of invitation to the leaders – “February 24, 2022 marked a turning point in the history of Europe”. It is not just the territory of a sovereign country that was attacked simply because it wanted to control its own fate. Peace, the rules-based international system, the inviolability of borders, the European security order and liberal democracy are under attack. The EU's internal and external credibility, its ability to be an influential actor in a world where threats are increasing and, ultimately, Europe's raison d'être as a political entity. The choice is binary. There are no shades of gray. All or nothing. And anyone who doesn't fit in (or plays games like Viktor Orbán) is out.
Brussels. European Council President Charles Michel yesterday urged EU leaders to “have the courage to make the right decisions” at what he called a “crucial” summit. It is crucial for Ukraine, which needs all the financial and military help it can get to continue to defend itself against Vladimir Putin's war of aggression and push Russia back from the territories it continues to occupy. But The European Council, which opens today in Brussels, is of even greater importance for the EU itself. Why – as Michel wrote in his letter of invitation to the leaders – “February 24, 2022 marked a turning point in the history of Europe”. It is not just the territory of a sovereign country that was attacked simply because it wanted to control its own fate. Peace, the rules-based international system, the inviolability of borders, the European security order and liberal democracy are under attack. The EU's internal and external credibility, its ability to be an influential actor in a world where threats are increasing and, ultimately, Europe's raison d'être as a political entity. The choice is binary. There are no shades of gray. All or nothing. And anyone who doesn't fit in (or plays games like Viktor Orbán) is out.
On Monday, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded to a question from Il Foglio: Dmytro Kuleba said that a failure of the European Council would have serious consequences for Ukraine's morale, but even worse for the EU. The Ukrainians will continue to fight without Western help because they do not want to give up their freedom by submitting to Putin. Anyone who thinks that a failure to make a decision on accession negotiations “could pave the way to concessions or negotiations with Russia is mistaken,” Kuleba said. But it's not just Ukraine's future that will be decided on the battlefield. “What is at stake is the prosperity and security of the entire EU,” warned the Kiev foreign minister. It is not for nothing that the adjective “existential” is used by the leaders of the Baltic and Nordic countries when talking about the war. They are the next at risk of being targeted by the Kremlin. But the adjective also applies to the EU and the West. “I cannot accept any apathy or fatigue towards Ukraine,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk: “This is something unacceptable because we are not just talking about Ukraine, about war and Russia’s aggression.” Let’s talk about our future. For Tusk, “the total mobilization of the free world” is necessary. (Carretta continues in Exhibit I)
The EU's full mobilization in favor of Ukraine has not yet taken place. Sanctions, weapons, money: a lot has been done, but not enough to enable Kiev to win. The speed with which the EU has responded since February 24, 2022 may be “historic” by its standards, but it is inadequate compared to the challenge of this war. The response is inadequate compared to what one of the richest, most industrialized and technologically advanced regions in the world can achieve. Vladimir Putin has turned the Russian economy into a war economy, a phrase Emmanuel Macron first used for the EU in June 2022 but never materialized. North Korea has delivered more ammunition to Russia in four months than the Europeans can deliver to Kiev in a year. Moscow has managed to circumvent American and European sanctions because the EU has not yet had the courage to take action against countries involved in the circumvention, such as China, Turkey or Kazakhstan.
The European Council today and tomorrow is not about financial aid to Ukraine. Whether Orbán's veto or not, when it comes to money there is always the possibility of finding a “Plan B” (renewing the macro-financial aid of 18 billion decided for 2023 or moving to a 26 billion government program). Military aid can also be provided bilaterally by individual member states instead of within the EU framework. What matters to Volodymyr Zelensky, who could go to Brussels to put pressure on European leaders, are the EU accession negotiations, in which the Hungarian Prime Minister's veto is unavoidable. There have been some small signs of opening up from Budapest in the last few days. The Commission has released 10 billion in funds for Hungary that were frozen due to violations of the rule of law. Michel will try to convince Orbán with a pan-European compromise: at this summit the decision will be made to start accession negotiations, which will only take place after unanimous confirmation at the European Council in March. The EU could claim unity and success. Zelensky could return to Kiev with a result to restore Ukrainian morale. But nobody knows what Orbán will do. And on expansion, his veto received more than 26 yes votes. “The real problem is the political signal we send to Ukraine and the geopolitical signal we send to the rest of the world,” an EU official tells Il Foglio. “We need to strengthen the belief that Ukraine can win this war, that we can win this confrontation not only against Russia, but also against that part of the world that runs counter to our core values and interests,” Tusk said yesterday. A diplomat confirms that the decision on negotiations should not be made “just for the sake of Ukraine”: a failure at the European Council would be a “catastrophic signal”. Moscow, Beijing and everyone else would come to the conclusion: the EU simply does not exist.