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After the All-Star break, the Cubs take on the Red Sox this weekend at Wrigley Field with Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele. While this interleague series won’t have the same appeal without Theo Epstein, Anthony Rizzo or Jon Lester, these games are still hugely important as the Cubs seek to establish themselves as a team that won’t be sold by the August 1st trading deadline.
It could still go either way as the Cubs have a 42-47 record and a softer second-half schedule. The National League Central isn’t as robust as either the East or West divisions, but those next 19 days could well define the entire season.
In forecasting best-case scenarios for 2023, the Cubs were hoping for a surge of young talent who would complement a fundamentally solid roster built on pitching and defense. A seasoned group of experienced players would work with a large coaching staff to create a culture of preparation, getting the little things right and finding every advantage to win those tight games.
At this moment it looks like the Reds (50-41) have overtaken the Cubs, fueled by Elly De La Cruz and a new generation of dynamic players. The Brewers (49-42) continue to do more with less under coach Craig Counsell, continuing a trend that suggests their record in one-run games (16-7) is no total fluke.
Still, the Cubs are just seven games away from first place and still find themselves in a crowded wildcard picture. Here’s a look at the state of affairs on Chicago’s north side:
Playoff Odds
Baseball Reference: 33.3 percent
PECOTA: 11 percent
FanGraphs: 9.8 percent
First Half MVPs
• Stroman is tied with 19 starts in the Netherlands and fourth in the ERA (2.96 ERA), although he admitted he needed a physical break and a mental reset, which is why he didn’t attend the All-Star celebrations in Seattle . Ranked second in the Netherlands on ERA (2.56) and third on WHIP (1.06), Steele has become the homegrown ace that the Cubs have struggled to develop for years. What a waste it would be for a team if 40 percent of its rotation was selected for the All-Star Game and just a few weeks later one of those starting players was substituted.
Dansby Swanson (David Banks / USA Today)
• Dansby Swanson was exactly what the Cubs were hoping for when they signed the Gold Glove shortstop to a seven-year, $177 million deal. While the performance numbers aren’t quite there yet (10 home runs, .753 OPS), Swanson is an excellent defender, a good hitter, an alert base runner, and a strong clubhouse presence. So far, Swanson has also surpassed Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts. However, Swanson had to miss the All-Star Game due to a bruised left heel and won’t be taken off the injury list until Sunday.
Biggest disappointments
• It’s hard to ignore Jameson Taillon’s disastrous first half. Maybe Taillon didn’t deserve the 6.15 ERA he achieved, but no one would say he was anywhere near good enough. Taillon is a thoughtful pitcher who scours data to get better, whether he’s doing well or not. He’s been searching for answers for the last few months and thought he was on the verge of finding out. Perhaps last Friday’s eight shutout innings are a sign of what’s to come for the big right.
Despite poor performance on the field, Taillon has proven to be a leader among pitchers. His desire to watch his teammates’ bullpens has spread throughout the rotation and has become a daily activity for the group as they try to learn from one another. Most Cubs fans have only seen this version of Taillon, and as someone who cares deeply about his team and his performance, it certainly doesn’t sit well with him that he hasn’t made a good impression thus far.
“You want to prove you’re worth what you’ve been given,” Swanson said. “You want to prove you’re worth every penny. You can put so much inner pressure on yourself that you try so hard instead of just being yourself. So it (my wife Mallory) always says to me, “Stop trying, just start being.” It’s really hard to deal with at times, but we all learn every day in this life. (Taillon’s) handled it so well. He’s a true professional, one of my favorite teammates.”
• Seiya Suzuki has all the qualities front offices are looking for when looking for a potential star. He doesn’t dash out of the zone, he rarely swings and misses, and when he gets a hit it’s mostly on the run. This season, Suzuki has actually improved some of those traits, hitting the ball even harder and more often. The problem is that his run rate has dropped, causing him to put the ball on the ground way too often (45.3 percent, over five points up from last season).
“Do we think there’s more to it than that?” said Carter Hawkins, the Cubs general manager. “Yes, of course. We believe he can be an elite racquet. Has he really reached that potential? No. He’ll tell us that first. But at the same time you see flashes of greatness. It’s just about finding consistency. We know it’s in there. He’s working hard to make it happen.”
Suzuki didn’t have a good explanation for why he puts the ball on the ground more. However, he shared at the end of the first half that he was concentrating too much on his swing. Over the course of the last week, he began to think less about that aspect and focused on hitting a competitive shot. Suzuki hit a home run in the last game before the break, his first since May 23. The Cubs must hope this is the start of his new mindset and finally allows him to harness the power they so desperately need.
X Factors
• The Cubs had no idea what to expect when Hendricks was suspended last season and diagnosed with a ruptured capsule in his right shoulder.
“There was a real level of concern,” said Jed Hoyer, president of Cubs baseball operations. “We approached his rehab with great caution and so did he. We took our time. We probably took a slower route than was necessary to ensure he came back healthy. Even in spring training we had the discussion that we should work on increasing your speed. Even if you’re not going to throw 94, the disconnect from his fastball and his switch is a key part of what makes him good. We gave ourselves a little more time and it seems to be paying off.”
Hendricks, 33, has a 3.04 ERA in nine starts and his contract includes a $16 million club option for next season. The last remaining active player on the 2016 World Series team is hoping to stick around long enough to start another playoff game at Wrigley Field. At this stage in his career, he also understands the business.
• Whether substituted on time or absent from offense, Cody Bellinger will be a focus for this team for the next three weeks. If Bellinger is the player he was in April — and who he has been since returning from the injured list (especially in the last week before the break) — then the Cubs’ offense changes dramatically. Talk to anyone on the team and they’ll tell you they like a lot of attacking characters, but their lack of ability to score in groups — that is, throwing the ball over the fence, especially with runners on base — is overwhelming .
Bellinger plays well in defensive midfield and has shown signs of becoming the attacking player he was in his better years with the Dodgers. Does he have to be the 2019 version of Bellinger who posted a WRC+ of 161 and won NL MVP? The Cubs would certainly take it, but probably not. If he can just hover around the 126 wRC+ he currently has and maybe bump up the performance a notch – he’s got a respectable ISO of .193, which has been going up lately – then he’s either that Key to an offensive going well or a huge trade piece coming in late July.
• This could perhaps rank among the biggest disappointments of the first half were it not for a reversal in June that must be continued if the Cubs have any chance of staying up. Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer were the veterans who would stabilize the group, but Boxberger has been struggling and has been on the injured list since mid-May. Credit to Fulmer for recovering from a rough start to his Cubs career (.93 ERA in 19 1/3 innings since May 28) but enduring his troubles in high-leverage moments in April and May the Cubs from getting any of those long win streaks earlier in the year.
The biggest problem might have been Keegan Thompson’s problems. Thompson, viewed as a potential pivot for several innings in the bullpen, struggled early on with some poor peripherals but was eventually caught. In his last eight innings, he posted a 10.13 ERA, ran as many batters as he missed (four) and looked generally lost on the mound. It all came to a head in Houston on May 17 when he failed to give up any of the three Astros he faced in the ninth game as the Cubs squandered a late 6-0 lead in a terrible road trip.
Keegan Thompson (Troy Taormina / USA Today)
Since then there has been some stabilization. Fulmer has found his rhythm, Adbert Alzolay and Mark Leiter Jr. have been awesome and Daniel Palencia has shown he can handle a three-figure win. Will this path continue in July and August? Will Hoyer add more weapons to the group? A left hand would be nice to give leaders a break in those moments. But this is seen as the cubs trying to crawl out of the hole the bullpen helped dig.
Progress is not linear
A much-vaunted farming system hasn’t made much of an impact, especially compared to what Reds fans are watching right now. Young players have plateaued, regressed and struggled to stay sane, all part of the game. Undoubtedly, Christopher Morel and Miguel Amaya were bright spots, and the bigger picture could be different by the end of the season when Palencia and other Triple-A Iowa players contribute to a playoff run.
But Thompson’s troubles are emblematic of a larger problem with the players the Cubs expect to see a step forward from this season. Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian missed their chances in the rotation. The bullpen might look different if Codi Heuer and Brandon Hughes weren’t on the injured list. Brennen Davis underwent what the team called “core muscle surgery,” which incapacitated a frontrunner who should have been making his Wrigley Field debut by now. Matt Mervis wasn’t the answer to the lineup’s lack of performance either, returning to Triple A after posting a .531 OPS in 99 plate appearances.
“It’s normal for guys to show up and not have consistent success right from the start,” Hawkins said. “When we sent Mervis downstairs, I had a chat with him and I said, ‘Look, I’ve only been in professional baseball for 14 years, but in that time I’ve only seen one player coming and it was just winning right from the start be and persevere, and that was Francisco Lindor in Cleveland.” There’s just something unusual about performing right from the start, being incredible and never stopping (producing).
“It’s a process that all these guys have to go through. Anthony Rizzo went through that. We put together a plan. We make sure we understand where the man is right now, what things he’s doing well and not doing well on a fundamental and physical level. We’re thinking about what our vision is for him as a player and trying to fill that gap. That is the ongoing process.”
When the Cubs buy…
The list should not be too complicated. The Cubs need more depth in the bullpen. If that’s coming from the left, all the better. Hoyer may hope for a homegrown group of substitutes in the future, but if that side is back in full swing he knows he cannot risk relying on Triple A’s youngsters to influence the group. Depth of rotation is always helpful, but probably secondary.
More importantly, however, is finding a productive racquet that can play both inside corners. It’s unclear how long Nick Madrigal will be out, Patrick Wisdom has a WRC+ of -32 in his last 48 Plate appearances and Morel just can’t be trusted on the defensive in the hot corner just yet. According to wRC+, the Cubs rank 29th in first basemen, 26th in third basemen, and 19th in DH. Morel is last but Hoyer needs to improve on at least one of the other two if this team wants to compete. If he can find a lefty who can hit, all the better. Bonus points if they’re under control for 2024.
When the Cubs sell…
Then Stroman will pitch for another team and the Cubs will weigh deals for Bellinger against the draft pick compensation they would receive if he turned down a qualifying offer and signed with another team. Hoyer would have difficult talks with chairman Tom Ricketts, manager David Ross and players like Swanson. For a team that wanted to win 70 or more games according to public projection systems, that was always possible. But a closing sale three years in a row would tighten control of baseball’s operations and put tremendous pressure on the team to pick up a big win next season.
(Top photo by Cody Bellinger: Michael McLoone/USA Today)