11.55 a.m. – Orcel (Unicredit): “For shareholders, buying back securities is better than the risk”
It is better for Unicredit shareholders to buy back their own shares than to take over another bank. This is what CEO Andrea Orcel claims in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. When asked about banking risks, Orcel replies that when it comes to takeovers and mergers, “if you are in a risky situation, you look at the book value.” However, at the moment we are not in a risky situation and we look at the multiples between price and earnings, because We strive for profitability, we no longer look at survival.” So, the manager continues, “today market values are 5 to 10 times profits, which means a cost of capital of 20%.”
“If you look at a lot of banks that are expected to merge,” he argues, “we're at 6/6.5 times earnings, which is a 30 or 20% premium to value, and then if you buy , you add another “30%”.
“Now,” he concludes, “if I go to my shareholders and ask them whether they want a successful bank, namely ours, to come along and assure me that I will continue to make five times the profit, or whether they want that I buy another bank, but “I have to ensure synergies for 9 times the profit and then the synergies add up to 7, the answer will always be the same.”
11.37 a.m. – Orcel (Unicredit): “Central Eastern Europe is interesting for us”
Central Eastern Europe is an interesting area for Unicredit. Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel explained this at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “If you look at the Central Eastern Europe region as a portfolio, because individual countries can have problems, it has always done quite well.”
“At the moment – he explains – I think that it is in favor of Europe, especially because of the convergence with the EU, and then there is a big modernization, there is a young population and there are better talents. “For us “It’s a growth engine,” he adds.
“If we talk about the growth of jobs and margins in the most central part of Europe, it is a little more difficult to manage, but as we move towards Central Eastern Europe, there is growth, full employment and an increase in wealth that allows you to do this.” “We're very positive about this area,” he concludes.
11:24 a.m. – Guterres (UN): “It is important to eliminate fossil fuels”
The phase-out of fossil fuels is “essential and inevitable” to prevent a global climate catastrophe. This was said by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I want to make it clear again: phasing out fossil fuels is essential and unavoidable. No amount of propaganda or scaremongering will change the situation. Let's hope it's not too late.” At the COP28 climate summit last month, around 200 countries committed to reducing global fossil fuel consumption. “We must act now to ensure a just and equitable transition to renewable energy,” Guterres concluded.
12.38 p.m. – Guterres (UN): “The UN must also play a central role in AI”
“The private sector is at the forefront of AI expertise and resources. We need your full involvement in our multi-stakeholder effort to develop a governance model that is adaptable and open to all. And I believe that the United Nations should play a central role.” This was what UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“My AI Advisory Board has already made preliminary recommendations on AI governance that leverage the benefits of this incredible new technology while mitigating its risks,” Guterres said. Governments urgently need to work with technology companies on risk management frameworks for current AI development, as well as monitoring and mitigating future harm. And systematic efforts must be made to increase access to AI so that developing countries can benefit from its enormous potential. We need to bridge the digital divide rather than deepen it.”
11:07 a.m. – Blinken: “Optimism about the potential of AI”
(Giuliana Ferraino) «What surprised me most in my role as Foreign Minister in these three and a half years? – answers Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, in Davos –. The democratization of technology that has given groups of people power and tools in ways that haven't happened to me in the past. For better or for worse. The majority of people around the world are optimistic about the potential of AI. President Biden reiterates that if the United States is committed, it can help move the world forward. We can't do this alone, we need partners, old and new partners, anyone who is interested. Including NGOs,” says Blinken, who concludes by quoting Churchill: “If you’re going through hell, keep going,” argued the British statesman.”
11:05 a.m. – Blinken: “Strong democracy in Taiwan after the elections”
(Giuliana Ferraino) Regarding Taiwan, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken says: “We see a strong democracy and congratulated ourselves after the elections.” Our main interest is that peace and stability are maintained and the differences between Beijing and Taipei are resolved peacefully become. We want to maintain the status quo.”
11:02 a.m. – Blinken: “We can cooperate with China”
(Giuliana Ferraino) «Is it possible to separate China from Russia? “Have you ever asked Xi Jinping to dump that loser Putin?” Tom Freidman asks US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who traveled to China in the summer while President Biden met the Chinese president in San Francisco in the fall. “We have to negotiate very openly and recognize our diversity,” he answers, “but despite our differences, there are areas where we can work together.” An example? The leading cause of death for American adults is fentanyl, a synthetic drug. We have signed an agreement with China in this regard to counteract the manufacturer groups. Of course there is competition, but also cooperation where we have an interest.”
10:42 a.m. – Blinken on Ukraine: “Russia is militarily weaker today”
(Giuliana Ferraino) Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, on Ukraine: “Neither party seems willing to negotiate or talk to each other.” But Putin has already failed, he has not taken away Ukraine's independence, but has Reacts. Ukraine managed to repel the Russian fleets in the Black Sea. Russia is now weaker militarily, economically and diplomatically.
I don't see a ceasefire, the Ukrainians don't want it. But the Russians have to be prepared to want to negotiate, then the Ukrainians will be at the table and the US will support this approach.”
10:39 a.m. – Blinken: “The biggest mistake is “dehumanization””
(Giuliana Ferraino) Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, in Davos: “There is another path that responds to Israel's deep security needs.” There can be no repeat of October 7th, Israel must have assurances about its security. IT has been used in such a way that large parts of the population today do not believe that Hamas launched the attack on Israel: for many, throat rape has never happened before. The biggest mistake today is “dehumanization,” that is, the inability to see the human in others.”
10:32 a.m. – Blinken: “We have the opportunity to “regionalize” the Middle East”
(Giuliana Ferraino) “I don't do politics, I focus on policies (policies understood as behaviors implemented with the aim of solving a collective problem, editor's note). The right policy at the moment – says Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State –. If we solve the Middle East problem, many other problems will solve themselves. Like the Red Sea. There is a lot of talk about regionalization. Today we have the opportunity for regionalization in the Middle East. The time horizon? It doesn’t happen overnight, but today the profound difference is the changing approach and mindset of the Arab and Muslim countries in the region.”
In the front row listening to Blinken sits John Kerry, now the UN special envoy for climate but a former US secretary of state from 2013 to 2017 in the Obama administration and the Democratic candidate in the 2004 presidential election.
10:25 a.m. – Anthony Blinken on the Middle East: “We need integration and security”
(Giuliana Ferraino) «What happened in the Middle East? The democratization of information technology has given many groups a powerful tool – answers Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, in a conversation with Tom Friedmann. But there is also another equation in the region: Now Arab and Muslim countries are ready to enter into a relationship with Israel, a desire that did not exist before. But also the conviction that this normalization must include a path to a Palestinian state. Part of the equation includes integration, security and a Palestinian state: an integrating region. But suddenly Iran feels isolated. “The problem is getting from that point to the finish line,” he says.
“If the US doesn’t engage in the region, someone else will.” Or, worse, it will be no one. Therefore, our presence in the Middle East is of great value. We are still witnessing this human tragedy today.”
9.50 a.m. – Christine Lagarde (ECB): “We are on the right track, but we remain restrictive”
“We are on track” to return inflation to 2% “but until we are confident that inflation is forecast to be stable at 2% and that is supported by the data, we cannot claim a victory.” This was said by ECB President Christine Lagarde in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Without another economic shock, we have reached peak interest rates, but we must remain hawkish until we have certainty,” he added.
Among board members “there is probably a consensus for a rate cut by the summer,” and if I were them, “I would also say it is likely, but I have to be careful because we also say we rely on it.” There is still a certain level of uncertainty and some indicators are not anchored at the level at which we would like to see them,” he reiterated in response to a question about statements by various governors that there could be a cut Council members are “on the right track” in their fight to curb inflation, Lagarde added, and it is also their job to say what they think is likely to happen.
9:34 a.m. – Knot (Dutch Central Bank): “Markets too unbalanced”
Markets are becoming “too unbalanced” with expectations of interest rate cuts. This was said by the Governor of the Dutch Central Bank Klaas Knot in an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. “The problem for us is that this could end up being counterproductive,” he explained. We are optimistic that we have a credible prospect of inflation returning to 2% in 2025. However, for this to be successful, a lot of things still have to go right. “Based on this forecast – he added – there is an assumed interest rate path that includes easing significantly lower than that currently reflected in market prices. Therefore, there is a risk that this expectation will become self-defeating.”