Ukraine has another month, perhaps 45 days, to make the most of its counteroffensive in the war against Russia. As weather conditions worsen and winter sets in, field maneuvers become more complex. As the operations of the Kiev forces enter a decisive phase, General Mark Milley, the American chief of staff, paints the picture, rejecting any overly negative judgments for the time being.
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“The offensive started about 90 days ago. It went slower than expected. But there is a difference between what Clausewitz called the war on paper and the real war,” says the general, emphasizing that there are still “30 0 45 days, a considerable period of fighting before rain and cold arrived.
“It is still too early to say how it will turn out. The Ukrainians have achieved partial success with what they have done, and that is important.” “Then it will rain. And it will be very muddy. Then it will be difficult to maneuver and then winter will come. Then we’ll see how it goes. But now it is too early to say whether the counteroffensive will succeed, whether it has failed or not,” he underlines Milley.
The new weapons are coming soon, which is changing
In the coming weeks, Kiev will have the new aid package prepared by Washington. Depleted uranium ammunition is arriving, particularly the 120mm shells for the Abrams tanks that are expected to hit the Ukrainian market soon. In addition, the United States is considering deploying long-range missiles, the Atacms, which could be a real game changer in a current near-blocked context.
“Ukrainians have made constant progress. They’re not done yet, the war isn’t over yet. They have not yet completed this phase, which they want to complete with a series of goals. It is still too early to say how it will end,” repeats the general.
COUNTER-OFFENSIVE WHERE THE UKRAINIANS ARRIVE
The latest news relates to progress in the Robotyne area in the Zaporizhzhia region, not far from the strategic center of Tokmak, which has high logistical value for Russia. “We continue to make small progress in the Robotyne area. About one and a half square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been liberated,” the Southern Command said, without clarifying when the latest progress was made.
To get a more complete picture, reference can also be made in the various analyzes to the counteroffensive that Kiev carried out in the second half of 2022. Last year, Russian forces were pushed back east from the Kharkiv region: Ukraine recaptured the city of Lyman on September 30, 2022 and after another 6 weeks, around mid-November, managed to liberate Kherson.