According to the British Institute for Strategic Studies, the lack of success of the Russian “special operation” in Ukraine is fueling considerations.
According to a study, the desire to use tactical nuclear weapons in a possible conflict with the Western military alliance NATO is growing in Russia. According to the study published Monday by the renowned British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the considerations are fueled by the lack of success of Russian troops in Ukraine.
This has led to a loss of confidence in the conventional military, which some Russian strategists believe could be offset by the threat of tactical nuclear weapons. Non-strategic nuclear weapons include all nuclear weapons with a range of up to 5,500 kilometers. This involves nuclear weapons that were developed for battlefield use. Long-range strategic nuclear weapons that could destroy the Russian or American state and that constitute the backbone of nuclear deterrence are excluded.
Discourage the US and NATO from getting involved
From the Russian point of view, the West's threat to use nuclear weapons or accept a war with many casualties is hardly credible, writes study author William Alberque. This promotes Russia's willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons. Thus, a conflict could be escalated in a controlled manner, “either to dissuade the US and NATO from getting involved, or to force them to end the war on Russian terms”, according to the report.
As proof, Alberque cites, among others, Russian analyst Sergei Karaganov. Last year, he spoke of the need to threaten nuclear strikes in Europe in order to intimidate and “sober up” Moscow’s enemies. According to Alberque, Karaganov is participating in a broader discussion in Russia about the military's inability to clearly and quickly win the war in Ukraine. Fears are growing among Russian experts that military failure could encourage the West to make further advances against Russian interests.
The right “dose” of using nuclear weapons
The great risk of using tactical nuclear weapons, however, is whether it will trigger an entirely destructive use of strategic nuclear weapons. The Moscow government must calculate the right “dose” to force its enemies to give in rather than triggering an escalation, writes Alberque. In the US, the question of how to respond to attacks with tactical nuclear weapons is giving strategists sleepless nights, explains the former US Department of Defense and NATO official. How can the escalation to the point of destruction be stopped? “This is one of the most difficult problems, a problem that has existed since the beginning of the atomic age.”
At the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that anyone who wanted to stop Russia would face consequences “they have never experienced in their history.” Last summer, he transferred tactical nuclear weapons to ally Belarus. However, this has not stopped the US or other NATO partners from massively arming Ukraine or providing it with other military aid.
Western secret services are closely monitoring the situation
According to the study, if Russia really wants to use tactical nuclear weapons, this should not go unnoticed by the West. Western intelligence services are capable of recognizing relevant clues, the author writes. This involves, for example, the transfer of nuclear weapons from a central storage facility to an air force base. Furthermore, the entire Russian nuclear command and control system would likely be placed on high alert. It is also to be expected that Putin will go to a nuclear shelter. (APA/Portal)