Oliver Bäte, CEO of the German insurance group Allianz.
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The Allianz Risk Barometer released this month found that political risk in 2023 was already at its highest level in five years and around 100 countries are considered particularly at risk of civil unrest.
Given the ongoing economic difficulties, particularly in “debt crisis countries”, this situation is expected to worsen in 2024. Protest groups promoting different causes are now expected to cause greater unrest.
Asked on Tuesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, what he thought was the biggest global risk at the moment, Bäte pointed to a lack of public trust in their governments in all major democracies.
“You saw the recent elections in the Netherlands, you saw it in France, and societies are polarizing because our leaders are not responding to people's needs,” he said.
Last year there were mass protests in France against President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform and the murder of teenager Nahel Merzouk by a police officer, which led to violent violence and property damage.
The Allianz Risk Barometer report also found that populist and far-right political forces expanded their influence with electoral successes in the Netherlands and Slovakia, reinforcing the emerging trend that began in 2022 when “Italy elected a party with neo-fascist roots , Hungary re.”-elected Viktor Orbán, and the far-right Sweden Democrats received over 20% of the vote in a parliamentary election.”
“We are seeing an increasing detachment of the political elite from the working class and the people who actually go to work every day, and I see that as the biggest risk for our societies,” Bäte said.
“And remember, there will be a lot of people voting this year, so we need to make sure they are voting for the right things and not just venting their anger.”
In addition to the risks associated with elections in Europe and the USA, there have also been conflicts or unrest in several African countries in recent years, with successful coups in Niger and Gabon in 2023 following the regime change in Burkina Faso in September 2022.
“While these coups were relatively peaceful, Sudan is rapidly escalating into civil war, particularly in its capital, Khartoum,” Srdjan Todorovic, head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial, said in the Allianz Risk Barometer report.
“Economic difficulties pose major challenges for many countries, especially Tunisia, which was on the brink of violence as president.” [Kais] Saied continued to rule by decree and without parliament.