Ukraine confirmed on Wednesday that it would maintain its positions on the left bank of the Dnieper, which were previously under full Russian control. Successes that suggest the possibility of a large-scale counteroffensive in this region with the aim of Crimea.
Published on: November 23, 2023 – 6:11 p.m
6 mins
Are they there, will they stay there? Ukrainian soldiers appear to have managed to consolidate their positions on the other side of the highly strategic Dnieper River, an area reportedly 100% controlled by Russian forces, the Institute for War Research said on Wednesday, November 22 , which the daily newspaper analyzes the military situation in Ukraine.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Army on Wednesday officially welcomed Ukrainian “successes” on the left bank (Crimean side) of the river. It’s new. “Until a few weeks ago, Kiev remained very discreet about its attempted incursions into Russian-occupied territory in the Kherson region. Now the General Staff is bragging about it,” notes Huseyn Aliyev, a specialist on the conflict in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow.
New winter quarters on the Dnieper
Further evidence that the situation on this sector of the front appears to be turning in Kiev’s favor: the issue is stoking tensions in Russia between the government and the “Milbloggers”, these often ultra-nationalist Russian military observers who comment on the conflict on social networks. “Officially, Moscow repeats that all Ukrainian offensives in this region have been stopped, but on social networks, ‘milbloggers’ have begun to recognize that Ukraine has made progress there,” summarizes Sim Tack, military analyst at Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company .
For almost a year, the Ukrainian army has been trying its luck on the other side of the Dnieper to test the Russian defenses. But until October 2023, the soldiers who crossed the river did not stay on this side of the bank. Too risky.
© Graphic Studio, France Médias Monde
A little over a month ago, everything seems to have changed when two towns, Pishchanivka and Poima, about ten kilometers southeast of Kherson, were attacked. Since then, Ukraine has been trying to set up winter quarters for a growing number of soldiers in the area. “It even seems that they managed to take control of several villages,” notes Huseyn Aliyev.
The left bank of the Dnieper increasingly appears to be an extension of the area of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which has been launched since June 2023. “The main fighting is taking place around the village of Krynky – about thirty kilometers southeast of Kherson – where the Russians appear to still be holding their positions,” notes Sim Tack.
Objective: Repel Russian artillery
But it is not so much the ongoing fighting that makes the evolving situation dangerous for the Russian defenders. Above all, Ukraine has managed to “secure several border crossings across the Dnieper, allowing them to strengthen their positions and rotate their troops to be more effective in combat,” explains Sim Tack.
In fact, securing passage across a river is not an easy task. Crossing waterways is one of the most complex and dangerous military operations. For this reason, the Dnieper represents one of Russia’s best defenses in southern Ukraine.
Read alsoThe Dnieper River, a natural rampart difficult for the Ukrainian army to cross
From now on, Kiev can boast of having overcome this obstacle. But not for all of his troops. “At the moment, the Ukrainians are able to ensure the safety of small infantry groups, accompanied by a few light vehicles, crossing the river. But the area is not yet safe enough to try to send contingents with tanks or heavy artillery,” said Huseyn Aliyev.
And without heavy military equipment, “no major offensive in this region,” assures Sim Tack. Hence the current attempt by Ukrainian troops to open the road on this side of the Dnieper from east to west along the watercourse. Objective: To push Russian artillery as far away from the river as possible in order to put all Ukrainian tanks out of range of Russian guns in case Kiev decides to send them to the other side of the bank.
But the Ukrainian army is not there yet. Meanwhile, she doesn’t really know which boot to dance with. There are too many soldiers present not to try to conquer new territories. Especially since “Russian troops present in this region are less well trained and equipped than those in Bakhmut and the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukraine has concentrated its main counteroffensive efforts,” emphasizes Sim Tack.
Risky choice
However, Ukrainian soldiers lack the striking power to reach Crimea, the main target of any offensive in the Kherson region. “At the moment, these attacks can still be seen as an attempt to distract Russia and pressure it into a troop transfer to this area, which would weaken Russian defenses in the Zaporizhzhia region,” Sim Tack said.
But what if Moscow hadn’t taken the bait? Kiev should then consider the possibility of a major offensive. A risky decision that would require the mobilization of a large number of forces. “In addition to light infantry, we would need at least 100 tanks and several hundred support vehicles,” estimates Huseyn Aliyev.
For this expert, Kiev “probably does not have that many forces in reserve and would therefore be forced to transfer part of them from another part of the front.” Enough to potentially provide Russia with opportunities to counterattack.
Furthermore, organizing such an offensive would take time. At the risk of turning the left bank of the Dnieper into a death trap for the Ukrainian army. Experts interviewed by France 24 paint the following scenario: Russia would wait for its enemy to mobilize more forces on this side of the Dnieper before sending enough troops to try to surround the Ukrainian contingent and cut off the few options for retreat. “That’s why the Ukrainians are taking their time: to see how the Russians react,” Sim Tack said.
Kyiv doesn’t have many alternatives either. “The counter-offensives in Bakhmut and around Zapporiya are at a standstill and the south of the Kherson region currently seems to be the most important opportunity to show the world that Ukraine is making progress,” summarizes Huseyn Aliyev. In other words, the Ukrainian army appears doomed to take significant risks if it wants to prove that Western support for the counteroffensive has produced tangible results.
