The Eagles have one of the best-constructed offenses in the NFL from both a roster and schematic perspective. They have the best offensive line in the league, two legitimate outside receivers, one of the best tight ends, a big-play threat at running back and an MVP-caliber dual-threat quarterback. Their plan fits their talents perfectly and they have ways to defeat anything the defense throws at them.
The problem? The meticulous creator and leader of this plan has disappeared. Former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is now in Indianapolis. And while the Eagles' plan is still solid, they lack new ideas and haven't evolved enough.
Last season, Steichen skillfully identified weak points in the defense and attacked them mercilessly. A good example of this was the NFC Championship game. The San Francisco 49ers defense aligned their nickel and strong safety on the strong side of the Eagles' trips formations (three receivers on one side), so they continued to call runs on the weak side. And as the 49ers adjusted, the Eagles had an answer to their adjustment.
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We haven't seen this type of targeted attack this season. The Eagles just seem to be playing their greatest hits over and over again, and some of the new ideas they've introduced aren't very effective. Again, the plays are solid and the Eagles are talented, so the plays work. But they don't have the same explosiveness as last season.
What was the Eagles' formula for explosive plays? Create a numbers advantage on the ground with their options attack. Force the defense to play a height defense and put an extra defender in the penalty area. Against Single-High, wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are one-on-one on the outside. Against Brown, he wins on a fade when corners play press. If they play out, he will win straight away. Smith will guide you up the whole tree.
For the Eagles, it all starts with the running game. Although it is still efficient, it is no longer explosive. Last season, the Eagles ranked 13th in explosive rush rate (8.8 percent). This season they are in 23rd place (6.8 percent). Because their running game is less dangerous, they don't get as many one-on-one duels on the outside, and their explosiveness in the passing game has taken a dramatic hit. Last season they ranked second in explosive pass rate (17.1 percent). This season they are in 20th place (13.1 percent).
The NFL's defense is now defending the Eagles' spread offense the way college teams have defended spread offenses for years – with quarter coverage. Overall, defenses are playing quarters and Cover 6 (combination of Cover 2 and quarters) against the Eagles, 10.4 percent more than last season. It seems counterintuitive to try to stop a running offense with two deep safeties, but in quarters, the safeties are a big part of the run fit; They just do it from the depths. And when teams face quarters, the defense still has the advantage of limiting explosives through two deep safeties.
Of course, this is an oversimplification. Playing in quarters requires a lot of security, but the numbers don't lie. Teams have changed the way they defend the Eagles and Philly hasn't evolved to respond.
Teams also know exactly how the Eagles want to attack them and are better prepared to defend their base concepts. As mentioned, in last season's NFC Championship game, the Eagles devastated the 49ers with their pin-and-pull concepts, with center Jason Kelce pulling for the ball carrier and blocking the lead. In their Week 12 matchup this season, the Eagles ran four times for seven yards before having to abandon the run because they trailed by double digits in the second half.
Week 12, 13:49 remaining in first quarter, first-and-10
On the Eagles' first pin-and-pull attempt, the 49ers gained a two-yard lead. The 49ers were in the quarter. Safety Ji'Ayir Brown likely read the offensive line for a pass or run key.
When Kelce pulled, linebacker Dre Greenlaw reacted quickly and hit him in the hole. Fred Warner, the backside linebacker, had to drop to play the bubble screen in case Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw it. Since the defense was done in quarters and not Cover 2 – Brown had to get deep to play half the field in Cover 2 – he released quickly to defend the run.
Greenlaw stalled Kelce in the hole and Brown became the extra defender. This was a great example of how quarter defense performs against a spread run. One of the linebackers had the opportunity to play the passing option, while a safety was able to become an overlapping defender. Because the offense is shotgun, running plays take longer to develop, giving safeties time to get out from deep.
The increase in Cover 4 and Cover 6 that the Eagles are experiencing has also dramatically impacted their play-action efficiency. Last season, the Eagles ranked 11th in game action success rate. This season they are in 25th place.
Week 12, 3:38 remaining in third quarter, second and eighth
Here, the Eagles implemented a play-action concept with a pulling guard to give the impression that they were pin-and-pulling against the 49ers' quarter coverage. It looked like they were trying to get the 49ers' Brown to release like he did against their pin-and-pull running game so they could get a vertical behind them.
Brown read his keys well and didn't bite on the play fake. And even if he did, he had time to recover because he was coming from the deep.
The Eagles like to go vertical in their play-action concepts, but it's difficult to attack the seams against two-deep coverages. The Eagles need to incorporate concepts into their playbook that can better attack the type of coverage they see now.
Even though they run a system that has been in place for years, when you watch their offense, they seem like a team trying to run someone else's system. The downside to copying and pasting someone else's system is that you won't know how to adjust it when teams throw you curveballs. It's important to remember that Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson is in his first season in the NFL. He doesn't do a bad job. The Eagles are still highly ranked in several criteria, but when playing against top competition you have to be able to adapt and Johnson hasn't demonstrated that ability yet.
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Back in Week 1, Steichen had answers that could have helped the Eagles with some of their problems. Before Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, he led the league in explosive play speed. With Richardson, the Colts had the most creative offensive option in the league. Steichen worked on interesting concepts straight from the pistol.
To counteract all the quarter coverage the Eagles were seeing, it might have helped to reach for the pistol. When playing pistol, the running back positions himself directly behind the quarterback so he can get downhill faster. That makes it a little difficult for these safeties to fit in the run from deep, and a team could still run all of their option concepts from the pistol.
IND vs. JAX, 2:45 remaining in first quarter, first-and-10
On this play from Week 1, the Colts lined up in a Wing-T pistol formation (a high school offense) with slot receiver Josh Downs playing H-back. The play call was a counter trey with the option of a quarterback keep. Downs made an orbit return move to give Richardson the lead when he kept the ball.
The left tackle and guard pulled, leaving the defensive end on their side free for Richardson to read. If the end was passive, Richardson could pass the ball to the running back, who would follow his pulling linemen.
The end pressed the running back, so Richardson kept the ball and followed Downs for an explosive run to the perimeter.
Later in the game, Steichen called a play-action concept from the same run look.
IND vs. JAX, 14:00 remaining in third quarter, first-and-10
Again, the Colts lined up in their Wing-T pistol formation as Downs made the orbit return move. Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (bottom of screen) ran a drift route while fellow WR Alec Pierce (top of screen) ran a field post.
The play fake got the linebackers to bite and Pittman opened up behind them for a 16-yard gain. The route concept was simple. Every team has it in their playbook, but the formation and movement the Colts used to use on a run helped reinforce the illusion.
Hurts is not exempt from criticism of the Eagles' offensive problems. His inconsistency on the second or third read hurt this offense. Hurts has unique arm talent. He can throw guys in the air as well as any quarterback in the league, and he knows it. But that ability has stunted his development as a pocket passer. He tries to force too many balls to his first shot, which usually involves AJ Brown going deep.
Against the Seahawks, the Seahawks played Cover 6 in the third and eighth of the third quarter with their corners lined up 10 yards deep. The depth of the corners would have been enough to stop many quarterbacks from throwing deep and instead looking downfield. But Hurts forced the issue and the pass fell through. Smith lay wide open on a flat bottom. Nobody was near him. He would have gotten the first down and much more.
After the game, Brown tweeted that he was Hurts' first read and Hurts narrowly missed the throw. While that may be true, it is a low probability roll and the coverage has made it even lower probability. In the game-ending interception, Hurts forced a pass on a similar play.
Week 15, 0:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, first and ten
With 13 seconds left and trailing by three points, the Eagles had the ball at their 45-yard line. Realistically, they probably had two more plays to get into field goal range. A few weeks ago, Eagles kicker Jake Elliott hit a 59-yard field goal in the rain with 21 seconds left to take the Eagles into overtime.
Instead of calling a play to make the field goal more manageable, Johnson called a shooting play. Brown ran an out-and-up and Smith ran an out on the other side of the field.
The defense rotated into singe-high position after the snap, so Brown was technically one-on-one and executed a fade. Safety Julian Love did an excellent job jumping on the ball and intercepting the pass. On the other side of the field, Smith took a wide lead with a breakout route. If Hurts had hit Smith, he apparently would have been able to get out of bounds around the 40-41 yard line, where Elliott made his game-winning field goal in Week 12.
“We've seen at times that there can be pass interference there,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said. “We had a one-on-one shot against the Rams, and you can obstruct a pass and now you're in position to kick it.”
Sirianni then compared the Eagles' final play to the Seahawks' first touchdown. The only problem with this comparison is that the Seahawks had 33 seconds on the clock when Drew Lock threw a go ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If Lock hadn't completed the pass, they would have had time to make several plays before the game ended. The Eagles executed a lengthy, low-rate pass that took up valuable time.
The Eagles retained most of their starting offense from last season. They should be better and more consistent this year. Instead, they have gotten worse.
The best offensive coaches in the league continually develop their offense. Look at what Sean McVay did in Los Angeles. The system he employs now is completely different from his first attack that took the league by storm in 2017, and it took several iterations to achieve. The Eagles' offense is stale. It's a toned down version of last year's juggernaut. Johnson and Sirianni still have time to figure it out, but the playoffs are getting closer and closer.
(Photo of Brian Johnson and Jalen Hurts by Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
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