Donald Trump, at a rally in Atkinson (New Hampshire, USA), on June 16. ELIZABETH FRANTZ (Portal)
If you ask any American Democratic Party supporter about presidential poll data, they will complain about the irrationality of those who want to vote for Donald Trump. They will say that thanks to Joe Biden's policies, inflation has fallen and the economy has avoided recession. The job market is strong and, as a bonus, the stock market is rising.
If the US presidential election is, as Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville said, “about the economy, idiot”, Biden's second victory should be a piece of cake. Voters disagree. In the latest Portal/Ipsos poll, Biden and Trump would be tied if the election were held today rather than November 5th. But a poll conducted in December in undecided (or swing) states found that Biden had only a slight lead in the seven states where the 2020 election was closest: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. If Robert F. Kennedy, an independent candidate, were added to the ballot, Trump would win by a large margin.
U.S. elections are decided by each state's electoral votes, meaning the winner of the popular vote receives that state's full allotment. These allocations are added together to form a national count. The system gives outsized influence to undecided states where voters lean toward one option or the other or where there is a balance of Democrats and Republicans. In several previous elections, the winner did not win the popular vote, but did reach the White House thanks to swing states. On Monday, Trump won the first Republican caucus in a landslide in Iowa, a state that once wavered but is now firmly in the conservative camp. And unless the Supreme Court's review of legal cases keeps him from the nationwide vote, he will likely be Republicans' choice to challenge Biden in a very close race.
Part of Biden's problem is that he assumed the most powerful office in the world just as Covid-19 was ravaging the US. It injected $1.9 trillion in stimulus into the economy, including $1,400 direct payments to some households. He also launched the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a series of emergency legislation aimed at creating jobs and revitalizing parts of the economy that desperately needed a boost. Some of the effects of these measures are not yet felt. For example, workers in some conservative states like Arizona are set to benefit from subsidies for the construction of microchip factories.
Thanks in part to these measures, the economy has avoided recession, the job market is strong and inflation, which had soared due to the aftershocks of the pandemic and Biden's fiscal spending, has been curbed.
In this context, it is easy to see that voters who support Biden believe his victory is inevitable.
The problem with this narrative is that the first two years have affected the overall perception of Biden's time in office. According to the St. Louis Fed, real household income in the U.S. fell 5% in 2022 compared to 2019 because inflation had risen so sharply. Americans fared even worse in Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In Nevada and Pennsylvania, real incomes fell by more than 10% during this period.
Although consumer price increases have slowed and incomes are rising, many Americans are finding it difficult to shake the feeling that they have become poorer in recent years.
Two states are bucking this trend. Georgia, a southern state that has historically elected Republican candidates but is now considered a swing state and where real incomes have increased 5% since 2019. And Wisconsin, where incomes were in line with the national average.
Place of life
Housing is another sore spot for Biden, particularly at the local level. Political analysis nerds have zeroed in on a handful of counties that will decide the election in each of the swing states because they punch above their weight. In 2020, for example, residents of Maricopa County, Arizona influenced the statewide vote. Biden won this district by just two percentage points.
The Atlanta Fed provides detailed data on housing by county, and the affordability metrics don't look good for the president. See Kent County, Michigan, which includes the city of Grand Rapids and is a major voting area. As of January 2020, 22% of the average person's annual income went toward housing, which is within the 30% limit that the Fed considers “affordable” for the average American. This calculation takes into account income, property prices and interest rates. By September 2023, it had risen to over 35%.
In Phoenix, which is in Maricopa County, that number rose from 28% to 45%. In Reno, Nevada, the largest city in crucial Washoe County, it is more than 54%, up from 34% at the start of 2020. In Wilmington, North Carolina, where Biden reversed the results in 2020 for the first time in decades it rose from 30% to 48%.
And even if inflation is now falling thanks to the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, many voters have yet to see the benefits. Because so much of Americans' paychecks go toward keeping a roof over their heads, even if egg prices fall or incomes rise, it's difficult to impact their overall financial well-being.
The economy could push undecided voters to vote for Trump. However, not everyone lets their wallet dictate their voting preferences. And a lot can change between now and November. With Fed Chairman Jay Powell announcing interest rate cuts in the coming months, growth could pick up and people may become better off.
The problem for Biden — and his supporters — is that while they can logically argue that he has succeeded in the Herculean task of leading the country through a devastating pandemic, people in Pennsylvania or Arizona, for example, could have things even worse without it Because of the chip law, there is no easy way for voters to find out. All they know at the moment is that they feel poorer than they did four years ago. If their mood doesn't improve before November, they will inevitably blame the man in charge.
The authors are columnists for Portal Breaking Views. The opinions are yours. The translation by Carlos Gómez Abajo is the responsibility of Five days
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