Daniel Noboa, the elected president of Ecuador, has 16 months ahead of him to correct the course of a country in crisis. His election campaign was full of promises that he can hardly keep in such a short time and with so little political structure. But if he really wants there to be change, which is what Ecuadorians are demanding of him, he will have to make unpopular decisions that, in the long run, could damage his image and therefore his re-election in 2025. The young businessman faces a dilemma at the door. More to reach the government that measures its political size.
First, it welcomes a country where violence has increased sharply in recent years. The outgoing president, Guillermo Lasso, saw the matter spiraling out of control and failed to remedy the situation. If we look at the cases of the neighboring states of Colombia and Peru, it becomes clear that it is by no means easy to stop the drug cartels once they have penetrated the system, to the roots of the state. However, analysts expect Noboa to exert influence on the issue once he assumes the presidency.
This criminal power, ironically, has its origins in prisons. From there it is suspected that the crime was planned by Fernando Villavicencio, the journalist candidate who was murdered in the middle of the election campaign because of his courageous denunciations against criminals. Therefore, one of these first measures could be to try to regain control of the prisons that are currently under the control of criminal gangs. Officials hardly have access to the wards, where the prisoners make their own decisions and organize themselves as they want.
The criminal leaders demand from the rest the right to sleep in a bed or have toiletries. You are the authority. During the election campaign, Noboa floated the idea of militarizing prisons, customs offices and ports through which the entire drug trade runs. It remains to be seen what strategy will be adopted to regain control of these prisons without the invasion of security forces leading to bloodshed.
Noboa will face economic problems. “The challenge in economic issues is immense,” says political scientist María Paz Jervis, executive president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, on the other end of the phone. At the end of the year there will be a budget imbalance of $5 billion. “How do you pay the civil servants’ payroll and Christmas bonuses? We’re talking about that level of severity,” Jervis adds. In addition, the government did not take into account the El Niño phenomenon or the cessation of oil production in Yasuní National Park (PNY). Problems that overlap.
And here, Jervis emphasizes, it is time to take serious measures that will not be popular with people. “There will be a profound debate within him about how he can be popular and act at the same time without jeopardizing his re-election,” he predicts. Noba then has to overcome these hurdles without having to face similar scenarios before. The president could choose immobility, leaving the country on autopilot, but the consequences would be dire and he would be compared to Lasso, who leaves the government with a tattered image.
Around him, Noboa must create a governing climate that does not currently exist. Lasso did not have it, in fact the fact that the Assembly wanted to impeach him for corruption was the reason that led him to decree death on the cross, that is, the dissolution of the Chamber and the immediate calling of elections. Something similar happened with Pedro Castillo in Peru, who was always tied hand and foot with the Congress that was against him. Without a political platform to support him and with only 13 members of parliament, Noboa is in the minority. However, Correismo, the political movement around President Rafael Correa, whom he defeated in the second round, is the first political force. Your suggestions could end up hitting a wall. Luisa González, the defeated, has offered unity, but her proposals are so contradictory that they will inevitably collide.
Pedro Donoso, general director of Icare, a reputation consulting firm, claims that the first thing Noboa really needs to understand is the country he will govern, which is not the same as it was two years ago. “Ecuador is now a child of violence. The social fabric is destroyed,” he emphasizes. He says that, according to what he has read in the press, in some coastal provinces insurance companies are no longer insuring assets for fear of theft, or that microcredit defaults have increased as small business owners are forced to pay extortion. As if that weren’t enough, according to the polling institute Perfiles de Opinión, nine out of ten Ecuadorians are pessimistic about the future, and only two out of ten have trust in the state.
Furthermore, Donoso emphasizes the loneliness in Noboa’s power. As we said, it has no party structure and very few legislators. “The issue of governance will be complex. However, I would not rule out the possibility that he is a pragmatist and analyzes his position on Correism and comes to agreements. Lasso had that in 2021 with the Citizens’ Revolution, but he destroyed that agreement. This prevented him from ruling. I think Noboa will act differently,” he adds.
In short, the young president mounts a rodeo bull. It is up to them to meet these challenges with wisdom and judgment or become a sad extension of Lasso’s silly mission. Ecuadorians are waiting.
Follow all international information on Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.