This is still a very weak signal, carried by informal and preliminary soft talks between France and Saudi Arabia. According to consistent sources, Riyadh appears to be interested in the Rafale, which is already flying in the Middle East (Egypt and Qatar) and will soon take to the skies of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Saudis would not be insensitive to the fact that its neighbors have already bought the tricolor device. Which in itself is a bit of a thunderbolt, given that the kingdom had been reserved for the Americans (F-15s) and British (Tornado, then Typhoon) for more than 50 years.
“Itar-free”, “German-free”
It’s possible that Dassault Aviation CEO Eric Trappier will make a discreet visit to Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks to see if Saudi interest in the Rafale is really solid. It should be remembered that in 2006 Paris tried everything to sell 72 Rafales over the counter. But Jacques Chirac had his nose broken, Saudi Arabia finally settled on the Typhoon carried by London. If the Saudis’ interest has finally been proven, some are already talking about an order for at least a hundred Rafales or even 200 aircraft. That’s a lot more than the United Arab Emirates, which ordered 80 of them for 16 billion euros (including armaments).
The Saudis sent the French very clear messages: They would like “itar-free” and “German-free” fighter jets. Despite Olaf Scholz’s visit to Saudi Arabia at the end of September, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman no longer wants to be dependent on Germany for armaments (typhoon, land armaments). It is true that after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, Berlin imposed an embargo on arms exports to Riyadh. It is suspicious of the ruling coalition, which wants to tighten restrictions on arms sales abroad (outside the European Union and NATO countries) in general and to Saudi Arabia in particular. Riyadh is also wary of the United States over Washington’s long-term commitments in the Middle East.
Riyadh’s interest in SCAF
Finally, the Saudis also seem interested in the SCAF program, who want to strengthen their strategic autonomy in order to reduce their technological dependencies. They could jump into this project if it fell apart with Germany and possibly engage in a Plan B in partnership with France. As with Rafale, these discussions are very, very embryonic. But the current flows better on certain channels. This was not the case during the Crown Prince’s visit to Paris last July, who responded positively to Emmanuel Macron’s invitation.
Received at the Elysée for a working lunch with Emmanuel Macron, Mohammed bin Salman left very unhappy at the end of that dinner, at which the French head of state would have mentioned, among other things, human rights in Saudi Arabia. The President had to deal with both individual cases and the general situation in the kingdom. Two other issues also irritated the crown prince, who eventually walked out of Paris when he was due to spend the night at his sumptuous residence in Louveciennes (Yvelines), where his closest entourage awaited him. According to our information, Paris even had to fight to be able to publish a press release at the end of this visit, Riyadh was against. There will also be a long, very long road to signing a Rafale contract, which might as well end up being another French mirage in Saudi Arabia…
Defense: Airbus and Dassault reach FCAS agreement
