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The European Commission will only move forward with Article 7, the socalled “nuclear option”, against Hungary for violating fundamental rights if a strong majority is in favour.
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“It is not possible for the Commission to make a decision in this procedure,” said Didier Reynders, EU Commissioner for Justice, on Monday afternoon.
Hungary has been subject to the first phase of Article 7 since 2018 due to the democratic backsliding accompanied by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is accused of weakening the independence of the judiciary, maintaining clientelism, diluting media pluralism, abusing the state of emergency, antiLGBT laws to enact and hinder the right to asylum rights.
Even if it has nothing to do with the rule of law, Orbán's decision last month to singlehandedly veto a 50 billion euro fund intended to provide longterm financial aid to Ukraine has greatly increased desperation in Brussels and led to calls for it energetic action. The decision will be debated again this Thursday at an extraordinary highrisk summit.
The European Parliament called for Article 7 to be brought into second gear and to conclude that there is “a serious and persistent violation” of fundamental rights in Hungary.
However, this new step, which has never been put into effect, requires a written proposal from the European Commission or a third of the Member States. Once the proposal is presented, EU leaders can vote unanimously without the accused country to declare the violation serious.
“At this point the Commission has not yet taken a decision to take the next step under Article 7,” Reynders said after a meeting of Europe ministers in Brussels.
“The reason for this is very simple,” he added, directly pointing to the lack of consensus in the council.
Although some diplomats suggested that the willingness to strengthen Article 7 had become more positive in the face of Orbán's veto and his “transactional” demands, Reynders made clear that the necessary unanimity was still a long way off.
“There is nothing worse than putting forward a proposal that is then rejected,” Reynders told reporters. “If there is a clear signal in the Council about the possible majority or qualified majority or ultimately, perhaps not so far away, unanimity in decisionmaking, it is clear that the Commission will follow the position of the Member States.”
Robert Fico from Slovakia, who has already expressed reservations about the 50 billion euro fund for Ukraine, and Giorgia Meloni from Italy, who has tried to position herself as a mediator between Budapest and Brussels, are among the state and Heads of government who may be hesitant to move forward Article 7.
Once a “serious and persistent violation” has been established, Article 7 can lead to a third phase: the suspension of membership rights, including the right to vote. Stripping Orbán of his veto power would resolve the impasse over aid to Ukraine and immediately provide Kiev with the liquidity it needs to offset its growing budget deficit.
But turning Hungary into a powerless secondclass member state would be a radical step with unforeseeable consequences. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior EU diplomat said last week that tightening Article 7 would be “inappropriate” as the bloc tries to find a solution between the 27 countries.
However, others expressed their anger even louder.
“We really hope that the way forward is through a 27 solution, but of course all options must be on the table,” Anders Adlercreutz, Finnish minister for European affairs, said ahead of Monday’s meeting.
“We have to explain to the Hungarian people: Do you want to be the ones to say to the Ukrainians: 'I'm sorry, we'll leave you alone and try to help yourself'? “We must not forget our own history and the history we would have liked to have had the support of others,” said Xavier Bettel from Luxembourg, referring to the liberation of Europe during the Second World War.
From Budapest, Orbán and his deputies vowed to maintain their position, although the fact that they made demands in return for the veto being lifted suggests there is room, albeit limited, for compromise during the extraordinary summit.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times clearly reflects the growing desperation in Brussels reported the existence of a “confidential” plan to “sabotage” the Hungarian economy if Orbán refuses to override the veto. The alleged plan would freeze all EU funding for Budapest, triggering a run on the local currency and scaring off foreign investors.
A senior EU official confirmed the existence of a “factual document” drawn up by the Council Secretariat on the state of the Hungarian economy, which “makes a proposal that is not consistent with the course of negotiations.”
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Hungarian Europe Minister János Bóka responded: “The document written by Brussels bureaucrats only confirms what the Hungarian government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is being used for political blackmail.”