“All balances have been lost in recent years” and the “completion of the Russian hypersonic program” is “a point of no return because it represents the transgression, or rather the objective strategic superiority of Moscow over Washington”. On the other hand, “if you have an unconventional arsenal and start using it, the signal that you could go on indefinitely is already communicated”. This is the analysis of Mario Scaramella, the intelligence pundit known for foiling the 2006 radioactive poisoning of FSB Colonel Alexander Litvinenko. Scaramella, who handled the interrogations of many former Russian officers for the parliamentary commission of inquiry into Italian intelligence and the Mitrokhin dossier, worked at Stanford in the 1990s with Teller (regarded as the father of the Hbomb and “Star Wars”) and then in cooperation with Russia at the Miass State Center for Ballistic Missiles SRC in the Urals, where he coled the special space initiative. As an expert on the subject, he had already started warning of the renewed strategic nuclear risk between the USA and Russia in 2019.
“The profile of the Soviet threat, now Russian, is assessed based on the technological potential and the attitude of the supreme commander to the use of the tools: after a certain stability that lasted throughout the Cold War and a relative balance of power in recent years, all balances explained er Adnkronos Putin not only achieved an “episodic” military superiority, that is, a moment when he has hypersonic vectors capable of breaching the American defenses, which are otherwise much more developed and advanced, but he has demonstrated this easing of inhibiting brakes on the use of weapons of mass destruction. When you have an unconventional arsenal and you start using it, you are already sending the signal that you could go on indefinitely.
“The Kremlin has used mininuclear weapons and minichemical weapons to eliminate dissidents (polonium210 for Alexander Litvinenko and Novichok for Sergei Skripal), should it confine itself to largescale use? Anyway, the informal warning that we launched a few years ago, when Elisabetta Trenta and Angelo Tofalo were in defense, was about the completion of the Russian hypersonic program, a point of no return because it was the overstepping, or rather the objective strategic one superiority of Moscow over Washington.
“Obviously, the elements of the scenario, for example, Moscow’s hostility, which has shown itself in the cybernetic confrontation with our country and in supporting terrorist groups in various theaters, including relations with Al Qaeda in Somalia and the Middle East, became indicators analyzed: The problem is not only having powerful weapons, but also the ability to use them without restrictions. It may seem an extreme scenario, but unfortunately it is plausible that the two blocs collide at a strategic level, and indeed what happened in Ukraine is part of that vision strategic, not tactical,” Scaramella stressed.
According to the expert, “It is inappropriate to speak of American and NATO provocations towards Russia just because Putin became aggressive when the general designer of the Makeev office, the missile center for intercontinental carriers, informed him that he had completed the hypersonic program It would be absurd to imagine that Washington and Brussels would provoke in a moment of weakness, but it is true that we do not react to the provocations because the simulations conducted by Teller at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and Stanford University would become dramatically actual.
“Ukraine says Scaramella is a kind of first blow, as could have happened in the Baltic countries of the EU or in Scandinavia or Balkans or border countries on other fronts, in the West as in the East, to a progressive Russian occupation of territories Interestingly follows a rapid action with the hypersonic weapon against the American defense satellites, then a possible attack that would not stop at a tactical option in Europe, to which NATO would probably not react due to the “flexible response” doctrine “the problem is that Russia today is capable of striking American territory and shows a strong will to do so. Dr. Teller envisioned a mutual destruction of the two blocs in a matter of hours and an even more horrifying postwar period. One must keep his warning in mind and also understand President Biden when he blurts out that Putin is not at of power can remain… In fact, we all have faith in the ability of the Russian people to renew their power, the ruling class and its leaders”.
If the Russians were to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the problem would not be “the use of the tactical nuclear weapon, which has a lower destructive power than the strategic ones used for deterrence,” but overcoming “that red line that would lead to the conflict at an uncontrollable level,” former Defense Minister Elisabetta Trenta told Adnkronos, who was interviewed about the scenarios of the conflict in Ukraine.
“The problem he clarifies is not so much the use of the tactical nuclear weapon, which has a lower destructive power than the strategic ones used for deterrence, and which would certainly hit everyone living in the affected area with catastrophic consequences, too for the rest of Europe. Let’s say the effect would be similar to that of a nuclear power plant explosion that we have experienced. The real problem is how much the use of an unconventional weapon doesn’t draw the red line, which would lead to conflict on a level no longer controllable.” “I think the red line can move forward, but there’s a limit, beyond which the conflict would become uncontrollable stresses Trenta the scenario tells us of more than 100 million deaths in a few hours”.
Trenta explains that as Secretary he perceived the danger of a return to a Reaganstyle ‘Star Wars’style confrontation between the two blocs: “I knew that technology on both sides of the former Cold War blocs was not advancing at the same rate and that this could have become a hazard. Perhaps this observation should have advised on different strategies than those used instead “. On the other hand, some specialists explicitly warned of the danger of a return to strategic confrontation between the US and Russia: among them Mario Scaramella, who only today in an interview with Adnkronos came back to the point “Scaramella is one of the most experienced people in this field and his curriculum confirms this says Trenta My reflections are also based on his studies. I think scientists and decision makers have a duty to believe the darkest scenario is plausible and act to prevent it from happening.”