Although the former Prime Minister’s party Benjamin Netanyahu has taken the highest number of seats in last Tuesday’s election, Jan in Israelaccording to preliminary results, the big winners are the farright and ultraorthodox parties. With a historical result that Religious Zionism must win 14 seats in Parliament, double what he won in previous elections, making him a key force in the potential new Netanyahu government.
Although the final results should not be known until Friday the 4th, Netanyahu’s bloc is heading towards a simple majority with nearly 88% of the votes counted. Until this Wednesday, February 2nd Likudthe party of the former prime minister, has 32 seats in the Knessetthe Israeli Parliament, followed by the current Prime Minister’s centreright party Jair LapidO Yes Atidiwith 24
In third place was the Religious Zionism led by extremist Itamar BenGvir, with 14 seats for the first time in history. above the party National unitythe former prime minister and defense minister, Benni Gantz, which is expected to win 12 seats and has already announced that it will form the opposition. Finally forming the bloc with Likud and who needs to be in government: Shawith 11, and Unified Torah Judaismwith 8
:quality(80)/cloudfrontuseast1.images.arcpublishing.com/estadao/JYG3LGL7KVHGZBGPTMJFFZEWPU.jpg "The extreme right has a historic result in Israel and could dictate the course of the new Netanyahu government 3")
Likud Party leader Binyamin Netanyahu walks through his party headquarters during Israel’s general elections in Jerusalem. Photo: Ronen Zvulun/Portal
With this preliminary result, Netanyahu’s bloc would have 65 of the 120 seats in parliament.just above the required 61. But the results are subject to change by the end of the count, especially as they are still to be considered. Voices from Arab regions that could bring Meretz or Balad into the Knesset Currently both Arab parties are below the required minimum of 4 seats.
However, this change will not be enough to change the reality that Netanyahu will lead the new government, nor will it reduce the extreme right as a third force, but it could leave the Likud coalition with an even narrower minority that could in practice hold Netanyahu hostage to the extremists..
In addition to the number of seats for his coalition, Netanyahu BenGvir will have credit for the surge in turnout in these elections, which was 6% higher than the elections 19 months ago and the highest since 1999, according to Israeli press analyses the extremist to convert some votes that were antiNetanyahu in the 2019 election to the proNetanyahu bloc.
Continued after the ad
“If Netanyahu does have seats to form a coalition government, he will be beholden to BenGvir and the farright leader will have a long list of demands. As well as the two ultraOrthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which will return with a vengeance from the opposition.
More about elections in Israel
Netanyahu struck a conciliatory tone after the exit resultswho said he would form a “national government that will take care of everyone” and vowed to respect all citizens, analysts say he needs to take a hard line to keep his coalition parties united and prevent further dissolution of Parliament.
Despite being Israel’s leader for 12 consecutive years, this new Netanyahu government will be very different from previous ones, particularly as it will have to cede ministries to political forces that until then had little representation in parliament.
“The Orthodox tend to want ministries linked to the more internal affairs of Israel, so for example the interior ministry, the education ministry and probably the farright parties will also have an interest in these ministries and other departments linked to religious aspects are of the State of Israel. that reinforce an orthodox vision of Judaism,” explains Professor Karina Calandrin, PhD in International Relations and Coordinator of the BrazilIsrael Institute (IBI). Estao.
:quality(80)/cloudfrontuseast1.images.arcpublishing.com/estadao/YPESZIDUORGWJCUECTAVQR3XRY.jpg "The extreme right has a historic result in Israel and could dictate the course of the new Netanyahu government 4")
Supporters of Itamar BenGvir react after the announcement of exit polls in Israel’s general election November 1, 2022 at the party’s headquarters in Jerusalem. Photo: Corinna Kern/Portal
Continued after the ad
In the daily lives of Israelis, this new composition of government should bring about advances made in previous governments, including Netanyahu’s own, such as longdistance marriage, LGBT agendas and the historic Abraham Accords for rapprochement with Arab countries. Also Yair Lapid’s signal at the UN General Assembly for a twostate solutionconsidering the conflict with the Palestineshould be discarded.
“This can be a very damaging thing both for deals already made and for possible future deals that have been outlined (like in Lebanon), it depends a lot on what importance these farright parties will have within the government,” he concludes statement teacher.
The big question, however, is how long this new government will survive. A question Israelis are asking after voting for the fifth time in three years. The last government dissolved after the coalition under leadership Naphtali Bennett and formed to defeat “Bibi” Netanyahu, clashed with the diversity of the internal makeup which included centre, right, left, Arab and Labor parties.
Now Netanyahu will have to contend with even more difficult diversity, as he himself has disagreements with the extreme right and the orthodox. Furthermore, if the forecasts are correct and your bloc has between 61 and 63 seats, your coalition will be very fragile and could fall apart if just two or three MPs leave.
Given the controversial figure Netanyahu has become, in which Israeli politics is largely a squabble between Bibi’s supporters and opponents, analysts are betting this government won’t last the four years it should have. “The opposition will be very strict with this government, and that can provoke very serious political crises,” emphasizes Karina Calandrin.
Continued after the ad
:quality(80)/cloudfrontuseast1.images.arcpublishing.com/estadao/Q7XFUVIFQBA4NAFEIQSU2TKHGY.jpg "The extreme right has a historic result in Israel and could dictate the course of the new Netanyahu government 5")
Former Israeli Prime Minister and Likud Party leader Binyamin Netanyahu with his wife Sara Photo: Menahem Kahana/AFP
“Furthermore, internationally we are seeing the extreme right becoming a very unstable government due to the controversies that ensue. And then there are Netanyahu’s corruption cases that are pending in court.”
Adding to all this is the risk that Bibi will become “a victim of his own monster,” as some Israeli newspapers have pointed out, since he was the one who gave nationalists space to grow in Israel. Now that an extreme right is becoming a consolidated force in politics, Benjamin Netanyahu could become “obsolete”.
“With the advance of the far right, he is a figure who will also come off, because neither the Likud nor He share these values of the far right from an ideological point of view. The ultraOrthodox have no ambitions for prime minister, but the extreme right does, and he has to be careful with that,” the professor concludes./With information from NYT and Renato Vasconcelos