If one believes the leader of the Wagner group Yevgeny Prigogine, the invasion of Russian anti-Putin fighters into Russian territory could herald the fall of the regime.
Prigogine is a terrible yo-yo. A former convict with no faith or law, he leads an army of mercenaries who risk being tried for war crimes.
But Prigogine has some qualities. One of them is to say what he thinks, without filters or jargon. So far, the information he has provided is reliable.
Of the 50,000 mercenaries that made up his army, he declared that only 30,000 would remain. He denounced the withdrawal of the Russian army at Bachmout. He criticized the lack of armaments from which his troops suffered. He correctly predicted the sinking of the center of Bakhmout.
Prigogine has been railing against the incompetence of the Russian army and the Russian leadership for months.
In recent days he has had the courage to admit that the Ukrainian army is one of the best in the world.
revolution in the making
Prigogine’s new predictions are enough to scare the Russian leadership.
In his opinion, if the war continues as it began, there will be a revolution in Russia on the scale of 1917. Because, to use his words, the children of poor families return in coffins while the children of the elite return in coffins lying in the sun. It would be enough for the next Ukrainian counter-offensive to succeed to overthrow the Putin regime.
To prevent this fall, Prigogine wants Putin to order a general mobilization.
Putin on Borrowed Time
Prigogine represents the sophisticated analysis of ultranationalist Russians. His words are probably exaggerated. But they have shown some sharpness so far.
They confirm the growing instability of the Putin government. The same instability that encourages Putin to avoid mass mobilization for fear the populace will desert him.
For Putin, time in power seems limited.
