Who is rising and who is falling in the polls? Who can surprise? Who has the best candidate? For now, everything is uncertain in the presidential race. With mass rallies, the final clashes between the candidates and the determination of the voting results for the elections on June 2nd, the time before the election campaign came to an end this Thursday. Mexico already knows that Claudia Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Máynez will be the candidates and already has a first idea of their proposals, their projects and their strategies, although the campaigns officially start in March. EL PAÍS consulted four experienced election strategists to get a clearer idea of the three candidates' strengths and weaknesses, where the key to victory lies and what they expect in the coming months.
“Everything is open, nothing has been decided for anyone,” says Aleix Sanmartín, the man who took charge of Pedro Sánchez’s last campaign in Spain. The political communication expert, who has worked with personalities such as Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Marcelo Ebrard, Felipe Calderón and Margarita Zavala, sees an election with clearly defined roles: Sheinbaum is the favorite, Gálvez as the main opponent and Álvarez Máynez Mystery that can end well or badly or cause “a big surprise”.
“In 2018, the Mexican people decided not to elect another president, but to change the course of their history and begin the Fourth Transformation,” Sheinbaum said in his closing speech at the Monument to the Revolution, the same public square he had previously chosen I won Morena's candidacy last September. Since then, the ruling party has adopted the slogan “Continuity in Change” as a clear commitment to capitalize on the president's high approval rating and set the course for his successor. “López Obrador is Sheinbaum and Morena’s greatest asset,” said Víctor Serrano, partner at Elemental, a communications agency that works for the party in government.
Serrano believes that his client managed to manage the succession process through surveys, communicate the project he represents and describe this choice as “a debate about the continuity of the transformation or a return to the past that he does not like.” “It works for the citizens.” Sanmartín also cites the president's support for his candidate as a strength, but notes that it also brings its own complications. “The problem with Sheinbaum's campaign is that López Obrador sees politics as a discursive dispute and he is the one who sets the narrative and discursive strategy. “That’s why you can’t leave her framework a bit, which means she has little room for maneuver,” he says. “He was not brilliant, but he had a correct campaign from a technical point of view, without major successes or errors and under the idea that he did not have to take unnecessary risks from the start,” adds the specialist.
Sheinbaum's rivals have not hesitated to criticize his attempts to emulate the president's speeches, formulas and even his manner of speaking. Gálvez's team calls her a “puppet.” “Mrs Sheinbaum, if you get permission, I invite you to debate,” the opposition candidate snapped this week. Aline Ross, partner and director of the consulting firm Lexia, comments that the official candidate must find a balance between presenting herself as a legitimate successor to the Fourth Transformation and continuing to demonstrate that she is a woman who, on her own ideas and merits, wants to achieve the presidential seat . Ross sees a sustained effort in Morena's campaign to present a more empathetic candidate who has a warmer tone and who won't give in to confidence or provocation, but who won't stay silent either. “You don’t grow in the polls through great provocation,” she countered after being challenged by her main challenger.
“We have seen very different pre-campaigns, while Sheinbaum has focused on the collective, Gálvez has a proposal that focuses more on telling his own story and connecting with voters by saying who he is and where he comes from,” says Ross. After a difficult start, the opposition front candidate has gone from less to more, flexing his muscles at a major event at the Mexico City Arena last weekend. “We have to fight the most historic battle,” he told his supporters at his latest event in Guanajuato, one of the main strongholds of the National Action Party (PAN).
“Xóchitl has returned to his origins, he has listened to his followers and has broken out of the cardboard template that they wanted to impose on his speech, his personality, his spark,” says Luis Rodolfo Oropeza, a strategist who built his career advising the PAN . and that he is a partner in the consulting firm Día D, which is currently working for the opposition front. Gálvez's team appears to be the one that has made the most drastic adjustments to leave behind the ghosts that plagued the first phase of his pre-campaign: the involuntary errors, the problems of positioning in media coverage and the apparent separation from the party Managers who apply for it.
Her rivals claim she is “inflated” and has “no potential to be a candidate.” “They look soulless, disorganized and confrontational,” Serrano says of his rivals. Oropeza, on the other hand, reiterates that the former senator has shown her most consistent face in recent days, that she has worked to overthrow the idea that the election is defined and that she has regained momentum to lead the race towards contrast accept it and show yourself as a real alternative. and competitive against Sheinbaum. “The biggest advantage of the broad opposition front is that half of the population does not agree with the president, and this percentage increases when Morena governors are evaluated,” says the expert. “The front has focused on saying why you shouldn't vote for Morena, but it has to work even harder to convince why you should vote for her,” he adds.
Sheinbaum chose Tatiana Clouthier, who ran López Obrador's campaign, as his spokeswoman. Gálvez has turned to Max Cortázar, Calderón's former spokesman, to lead his communications team in one of the most notable moves of this electoral phase. “You may like it or not, but if anyone knows how to win elections in the PAN, it is the Calderonistas,” says Sanmartín.
The pre-campaign of the Citizens' Movement (MC) was inevitably marked by the temporary nomination of the governor of Nuevo León, Samuel García; the political crisis in Nuevo León and the surprise nomination of MP Jorge Álvarez Máynez, a profile little known to voters. According to Ross, Dante Delgado's party is dominating its narrative and becoming strong in communication on social networks, but faces a tough battle with time: Álvarez Máynez only had seven days of pre-campaign and Samuel García ten. “They don’t know us, they don’t know what we’re made of,” the candidate explained at his event in Monterrey.
“They have to find the conversion point between likes and votes and they also have to make their party known,” says Ross. The MC candidate fits the labels of “the new guy” and “the boy” originally intended for governor, but he needs to define his own path. “It's one thing for the tennis shoes to fit, and another for the suit to fit,” says the specialist.
“I think the candidates save their best dance moves for the next round,” says Oropeza, adding: “Although no rival should be underestimated, experience teaches us that Morena is not invincible.” Sanmartín, who by the unexpected Sánchez's re-election has gained notoriety in Spain, insists that nothing can be advanced yet because “voters are determining their vote later and later in the campaign” and because it will be “an election that will be decided with the votes of the undecided.” and the voter,” voters who tend to change who they vote for each election.
“That is why it is so important to believe that you can win and to define exactly what the theoretical framework of your candidacy is, who you are, who are the heroes and the villains, who you are talking to and to whom “The timing of what we did with the PSOE,” says the strategist. Sanmartín expects a “contrasting campaign” and predicts that there will be repeated attacks. “Fear is stronger than hope,” he explains about the “dirty war” and why it is a phenomenon repeated in campaigns around the world.
Serrano does not fear the possibility of a confrontational election campaign, as he affirms that this will be an election that will be decided by “the convinced,” the voters who are already clear about who they will vote for and who they will not vote for . “Mexico is a much more politicized country, that has changed in 2024, now discourse and ideology count more,” says the strategist, who sees “a terrible identity and brand conflict” in the opposition.
“At a strategy table, timing is crucial, you have to know when to hold on and when to sprint,” says Ross, who expects family finances and security to be the big catalysts of the campaign. “Strategists must be real jugglers, they must be consistent in the narrative they promote but also innovate to attract attention among the thousands of stimuli to which we are exposed and, above all, work on how to do it,” he adds. The war centers are already oiling the engines for the final leg of the race.
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