A final midterm election forecast shows Republicans gripping a majority in the House of Representatives and capturing three Senate seats with less than 24 hours until millions of Americans start voting.
In their latest prediction, based on poll averages, Real Clear Politics has the GOP with 53 Senate seats when votes are counted and picks up at least 15 in the house races to bring their total to 227, with Democrats winning 174.
Thirty-four races for Congress are still considered misjudgements, but it’s clear that Republicans have the momentum, although Democrats are making a small comeback in the closing stages.
President Biden’s low approval rating and voters trusting Republicans to deal with the economy, inflation and crime have turned the tables towards the GOP in recent months.
Polls have also shown that suburban white women, black and Hispanic voters are turning to Republicans because they are fed up with soaring prices and rising violence across the country.
It’s a dire sign for Democrats, who focused their early campaigns on abortion – spending more than $300 million on ads on the subject – and the danger the GOP poses to democracy in the late stages.
More than 40 million Americans have already voted well ahead of 2020 levels, according to the United States Election Project, suggesting there could be record turnout.
Senate races are going to the end, with candidates in key swing states of New Hampshire, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia separating by less than a point in the final polls.
A final midterm poll forecast shows Republicans gripping a majority in the House of Representatives and taking three Senate seats, with less than 24 hours until millions of Americans go to the polls
Thirty-four races for Congress are still considered misjudgements, but it’s clear that Republicans have the momentum, although Democrats are making a small comeback in the closing stages
President Joe Biden delivered a chaotic speech from Yonkers, New York, two days before the midterm elections, where he stumbled onto the stage and spent much of his time interrupting his own speech to interact with the audience
dr Oz is just 0.1 percent ahead of John Fetterman in Keystone State in a race that could decide who wins the Senate.
When early results are so close, it could be days or weeks before the final tally is known, as in the 2020 presidential election.
In Georgia, Herschel Walker is 0.4 percent ahead of Raphael Warnock, suggesting a Dec. 6 runoff is likely.
Politico also has Republicans taking more than 15 seats in their final forecast while viewing the Senate as a “toss.”
In the House of Representatives, results in New York, New Jersey and Virginia could set the stage for the rest of the evening.
Democrats Elaine Luria, Jennifer Wexton and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Tom Malinowski in New Jersey are the most likely to lose in the so-called purple counties.
Rep. Cindy Axne of Iowa is also preparing for a loss to her Republican rival in Iowa.
Republicans are growing increasingly confident they can even flip districts in blue areas like New England and New York and end the night before Democrats before it even begins.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, faces an uphill battle in his Hudson Valley, New York seat.
Messaging has been crucial for both parties during the election campaign, with historic inflation, rising crime and the surge in migrant crossings.
Third Way, a center-left think tank with major influence among Democrats in Washington DC, has criticized the party for not caring about what voters care about most and says liberal candidates are seen as just as extreme become like their Republican counterparts.
“If the Democrats manage to stay in the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it,” Third Way wrote in a memo obtained by Axios.
“Despite a slate of GOP candidates that is extreme in every way, voters see Democrats as equally extreme and are far less concerned about the issues that worry them most.”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom also admitted that the GOP “crushed” the Democrats with their messages.
Spectator and Sarah Lawrence College student Vivian Lipson spoke at the President’s rally on her college campus Sunday, April 6
When will the results of the midterms be available? It could be hours or almost a MONTH before Congressional control is known…but beware of red and blue “mirages” that appear decided before they really are
With Election Day just days away, it could be up to a month before Americans know which party will take control of the United States Congress.
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for grabs on Tuesday, as are 35 US Senate seats and 36 governorships.
Republicans would need to win five seats to gain a majority in the House of Representatives and only one to control the Senate. Impartial election forecasters and polls suggest Republicans have a very good chance of winning the majority in the House of Representatives, with control of the Senate likely to be more contested as voters say they are most concerned about the economy .
A massive wave of Republican support could lead to declarations of victory hours after the polls close.
But with dozens of races expected to close and key states like Pennsylvania already warning it could take days to count every ballot, experts say there’s a good chance Americans will go to bed on election night not knowing who won .
“When it comes to knowing the results, we should refrain from talking about Election Day and instead think about Election Week,” said Nathan Gonzales, who edits the bipartisan newsletter Inside Elections.
Earliest vote counts are skewed by how quickly states count mail-in ballots, with some states reporting mail-in ballot results earlier, which could make it seem like Democrats have the lead in the state
Beware of red and blue “mirages”.
Earliest vote counts are skewed by how quickly states count absentee ballots.
Because Democrats vote by mail more often than Republicans do, states that allow officials an early jump into mail-in ballot counts could report big Democratic cues early on, which evaporate as tellers work their way through stacks of Republican-leaning ballots cast on Election Day .
In these “blue mirage” states — like Florida and North Carolina — election officials are allowed to take mail-in ballots out of their envelopes before Election Day and load them into vote-counting machines for a quick count.
But states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don’t allow officials to open the envelopes until Election Day, leading to a possible “red mirage” where Republican-leaning Election Day votes are reported earlier and many Democrat-leaning mail-in ballots are counted later.
Pundits like Joe Lenski, co-founder of Edison Research, who will be following hundreds of races on Nov. 8, said he’ll be keeping an eye on the mix of different types of ballots each state tallies throughout the night.
“Blue mirage, red mirage, whatever. You just have to look at what types of voices are being reported to know where you are in that condition,” Lenski said.
So when will we know when the races are won?
The first wave of vote counts is expected on the East Coast between 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. ET. An early sign of Republican success could come if the expected races — like Virginia’s 7th congressional district (where Republican Liz Cheney has her support for a Democratic nominee) or a contested US Senate seat in North Carolina — turn out to be Democratic turn out routes.
Around 10 p.m. or 11 p.m. EST, when Midwest polling stations will be closed for an hour or more, it’s possible Republicans will have enough momentum for pundits from U.S. media organizations to take control of the House, Kyle said Kondik, a policy analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Policy.
If the fight for the House of Representatives still looks tight as vote numbers pour in from the West Coast — where there could be more than a dozen close house races — it could be days before control of the chamber is known, experts said.
California typically takes weeks to count all of its ballots, in part because it counts postmarked ballots until Election Day, even if they arrive days later. Nevada and Washington state are also allowing late ballots if postmarked by Nov. 8, slowing the march to final results.
“If the house really is on the brink, that would matter,” Kondik said.
It may take longer, maybe weeks longer, to know which party will control the Senate, with close contests in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia likely to determine ultimate control.
And if the Georgia Senate race is as close as expected, with no candidate receiving more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff would be scheduled for December 6, potentially leaving control of the chamber in limbo until then.