Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein*, Prensa Latina employee
It is very difficult to write with composure when witnessing a genocide that the world is limited to observing because international organizations, especially the UN, which was founded to ensure peace on the planet, are completely ineffective . If there was any doubt about it, it was made public and obvious today. It is imperative that the world changes and a new fair, just and democratic international system emerges. The facts show that the so-called “collective West” will be left out of the world of the future.
Within this framework and continuing the investigation, a somewhat broader spectrum is now addressed, revealing another aspect of it, namely the sub-regional and regional impact of this event that has mobilized the entire planet and the influences that it generates.
First, I must say that I do not believe that this is, to paraphrase Saddam Hussein, “the mother of all battles.” It seems to me that the events that began on October 7th are a “test” for future operations at a higher level. In other words, everything that has happened since that day last week is part of a struggle to create scenarios and prepare for the final battle in which a coalition of Arab and Muslim countries will act together to defeat Israel , liberate Palestine, retake East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.
That moment has not yet come. This was stated by Iranian Foreign Minister Hosein Amir Abdolahian when he said that “at zero hour, the resistance decides on all measures in the event of a continuation of Israeli crimes against Gaza.”
In my opinion, not all the conditions are in place to wage this fight; they must be created on all four levels. In fact, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was planned, organized and carried out in complete secrecy, so that not even Hamas’s internal or external allies knew about it. Since this cause belongs to all Palestinians and even to all Arabs and Muslims, it was by no means an action by all Palestinian forces or the resistance axis. They limited themselves to “congratulating” Hamas without engaging in it until they realized the extent of it.
It gives me the impression that the Palestinian forces are not yet united internally to face the common enemy. Although in January 2022, five of them: Hamas, Al Fatah, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (FDLP), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Islamic Jihad met in Algiers to resolve their differences. By joining forces, the one that has begun Process not yet completed. A few months later, in October last year, 14 Palestinian organizations signed a reconciliation agreement, also in Algeria. Among the points agreed was to hold elections this year, but these did not take place.
Israel, for its part, has chosen to divide the Palestinian political forces. The treatment of the West Bank was not the same as that of the Gaza Strip. Without ambiguity, some Zionist leaders, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu, have said, in statements that would have made Hitler himself blush, that a “total siege” of Gaza must be carried out, or at least that it should be “reduced after the end of the war,” he claimed. Minister Gideon Saar. This suggests that genocides in today’s world are announced in advance to public opinion and broadcast live and directly by the morbid international media.
In the other trench, the State of Israel is trying to convey unity against the “common enemy.” In fact, the forces that have been protesting in the streets against Netanyahu’s authoritarianism for months have announced the suspension of their activities. This was exploited by the Zionist Prime Minister to demand the formation of a government of national unity. However, Yair Lapid, one of the opposition leaders, refused to take part, saying he could not be on the same side as the far right. Although it is difficult to understand, Netanyahu is seen in Israel as a moderate right-wing politician who was forced to make deals with far-right parties and the ultra-conservative Religious Zionist Party to build a governing alliance.
On another level, the media, Haaretz newspaper, the fourth largest newspaper in the country, has broken communication unity and issued editorials with sharp criticism of Netanyahu, whom it blames for current events.
The impact of the failure of its intelligence services, the embarrassment of its army’s inability to contain the Palestinian militias, and the impact of thousands of young people who have left the country in recent years remains to be seen in the future escape. The famous national unity has been called into question and the impression is that it will be difficult to restore it.
Exactly a year ago, on October 19, I wrote an article in the same place entitled “Something Smells Bad in Israel.” It referred to statements by Major General Uri Gordin, the new head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command, who had warned a month earlier “that Hezbollah could fire up to 4,000 rockets at Israel in the first days of a possible conflict.” “War that could be unleashed.” According to the senior military chief, this means about ten times more than in the 2006 war and he assured that the Lebanese organization could increase the number by 1,500 to 2,000 per day.
To clarify the information, Gordin explained that “the number of Hezbollah’s high-precision missiles is relatively small, but they are enough to include strategic civilian and military facilities as well as high-ranking leaders of the country among the targets.” He added concern to his analysis He added: “Israel is not prepared to intercept such a number of rockets, the number of casualties of which could be very high.” He pointed out that the cities of Haifa and Tiberias would be among Hezbollah’s targets.
This is the reality: Israel expected the attack not from the south, but from the north, and although it foresaw the potential of the missile strike, which was a hypothesis a year ago, today it has become a reality with the results observed. The conclusion is clear: Israel is unable to simultaneously confront the Palestinian organizations, the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Syrian army, the more than 30,000 Iraqi resistance fighters put into combat readiness on October 7, the huge missile capabilities of Yemen, the gigantic Iran’s military potential, not to mention the two million Palestinians living in Jordan and the patriotic fervor of millions of Arabs and Palestinians in West Asia and around the world.
Even with the support of Europe and the United States, Israel will not be able to withstand an avalanche of this magnitude. That’s what Biden wants to avoid. That’s why he traveled to Israel today, after his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made two unsuccessful trips to Tel Aviv last week. It is worth noting that Israel, like Ukraine, relies on the support of the West, especially the United States, for its combat capability. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, Israeli army spokesman, put it bluntly: “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the response will be deadly.” “The United States fully supports us.” President Joe Biden reiterated this when he said from Tel Aviv announced that Washington would support the Zionist entity “today, tomorrow and always.” All this, a day after the attack on the Gaza hospital in which hundreds of people died.
This support also resulted in the US issuing three vetoes of United Nations Security Council resolutions. One demand proposed by Brazil, albeit a fairly lukewarm one, called for “humanitarian pauses” amid the genocide in Gaza. The other two were proposed in the form of amendments by Russia. The first of them “condemned the indiscriminate bombings,” while the second called for “an immediate, stable and fully respected ceasefire.” Once again, the United States encouraged terrorism while the United Nations demonstrated its inability to prevent it.
The second and third levels of analysis have to do with the sub-regional and regional effects, which seem to me to be crucial in this case. A strategic definition of the conflict will depend on whether they are involved in the events or not. It is clear that the Palestinians alone are incapable of establishing a correlation of military force that would tip the balance in their favor. If anything has strengthened the struggle of the Palestinian people, it has been the strength and development of the fighting capacity of the Iranian-led resistance axis.
On the other hand, the unconditional support of Israel by the United States and Europe makes it crystal clear that this fact, together with the anti-colonial resistance expressed by the people of Africa and the events in Ukraine, allows us to do this without any consent to confirm A hint of doubt that what the “collective West” is today is a Nazi, imperialist and colonialist bloc. This is the enemy of humanity today.
Building the balance of power to deal with the conflicts of the present and the future must make this bloc the main enemy of the people, the enemy of humanity.
In this situation, a collapse of the strategic balance in favor of the Palestinian people will only occur if the inclusion – first and foremost – of the axis of resistance and, in the background, of the entire Arab and Muslim world is achieved. This has not yet been achieved.
On the contrary, the United States had achieved some success in this regard by securing the recognition of Israel by some Arab countries following the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020 between Tel Aviv and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which later included Sudan and Morocco , promoted joined.
Likewise, negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish relations were quite advanced. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood disrupted these agreements. Now it’s time to know whether it will be temporary or permanent.
The entire development of this equation will influence the future path of the Palestinian people. However, it must be taken into account that the definition will not be immune to the transcendent changes taking place on the international stage. Therefore, they must be analyzed in their relationship to Palestine. (Sequel follows)
RMH/SRG
*Bachelor in International Studies, Master in International and Global Relations. Doctor of Political Science
(Taken from selected signatures)