It is “now inevitable” that the global warming threshold of 1.5°C will be exceeded “continuously over several years” and there is a one in two chance of this happening in just seven years, scientists at Global Carbon have warned Project on Tuesday calling for action.
According to this baseline study presented at the UN climate meeting in Dubai, CO2 emissions from the use of coal, gas and oil worldwide for heating, lighting or driving are expected to increase and actually reach a new record in 2023 .
In 2015, the world’s heads of state and government set the goal of not exceeding the limit of +1.5 °C in the Paris Agreement in order to avoid repeated heat waves and profound, even irreversible changes in nature caused by human activity.
“Heads of state and government meeting at COP28 must agree on rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, even to maintain the 2°C target,” emphasizes British climatologist Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study with 150 researchers from all over the world.
However, “measures to reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain alarmingly slow,” criticizes the scientist. “The remaining time until the +1.5°C threshold is shrinking at full speed, we must act now,” he added.
Last year, these scientists estimated that this critical 1.5°C increase would take effect in nine years.
In detail, the study estimates that total global carbon dioxide emissions entering the atmosphere in 2023 will reach 40.9 billion tons (GtCO2).
That’s four times more than in 1960, and the emissions curve will remain at a plateau over ten years instead of falling, the researchers emphasize.
Deforestation, particularly in Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia, plays a role, but compared to the use of fossil fuels and cement, which remains out of control, at 36.8 Gt CO2 (+1.1% compared to 2022) minimal.
Efforts to reduce fossil fuel-related emissions have been made in 26 countries, accounting for 28% of global emissions (-7.4% in the European Union, -3% in the United States), but it is not enough the study says.
The resumption of international air travel has caused the sector’s emissions to rise by 28.2% this year, after two years of catch-up, the study highlights.
Coal remains widespread as the number one polluter and the associated emissions are expected to continue to increase this year (+1.1%). Its use has increased particularly in China and India, but also elsewhere in the world. It has fallen sharply in the European Union and the United States, which nevertheless replace it with gas.
The same applies to oil (32% of global emissions compared to 41% for coal), whose emissions are expected to increase in 2023 (+1.5%), driven by China and India, while a slight decrease elsewhere is recorded. The trend is the same for gas (+0.5%), as well as for cement (+0.8%).
The most important greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, which is released when burning gas, oil or coal or during construction, takes decades to dissipate. Its accumulation is the main cause of global warming.
India is a major user of coal-fired power plants to meet rising electricity demand and is the world’s third-largest emitter as of 2022, well behind China and the United States but ahead of the European Union. Its emissions are expected to rise by more than 8% this year compared to 2022, more than China (+4%).
In relation to the number of inhabitants – India became the most populous country in the world this year with 1.425 billion inhabitants – Indian emissions are seven times lower than those of Americans and three times lower than those of Europeans, the study says.
“If everyone starts emitting as much as an American, we won’t get out of this” and we will move “towards 4°C of warming,” observes French physicist Philippe Ciais.
2024 is already shaping up to be a dark year for global warming as the El Niño climate phenomenon grows across the Pacific and threatens to damage the vegetation humanity needs to absorb some of the carbon emissions.