RFI
On Wednesday (29th) around 3 a.m., a train of the Colombian army was ambushed while it was sleeping. The gunfire and explosives attack was carried out by a group of ELN guerrillas in the Catatumbo region, one of Colombia’s most violent areas.
The soldiers were in a region bordering Venezuela, protecting the Caño Limón Coveñas oil pipeline. The attack resulted in nine dead and several wounded, including some young people who were still doing their military service.
Helder Giraldo, General Commander of the Armed Forces, attributed the attack to Front Camilo Torres of the ELN, which operates in the attack area. According to the Colombian army, the attack took place in a location outside the “red zone”, that is, far from the parts of Colombian territory where conflicts between armed groups occur.
Colombia’s president dismissed the attack and called for “consultation with the government delegation,” which has been negotiating a peace dialogue with the ELN since November 2022.
Interior Minister Alfonso Prada condemned the deaths, saying: “It is always possible to rise from a table when there are no conditions for dialogue, or, as we have already done, to suspend a ceasefire and order an allout offensive when there are none.” will gives . real peace!” he declared in a message published on social networks.
What is Petro’s “total peace”?
“Total Peace” is an ambitious plan aimed at negotiating with drug traffickers and guerrilla groups over ending their operations, reducing troops and allowing some of these groups to enter politics, as happened in 2016 with the extinct FARC guerrilla happened.
The plan was sanctioned by Petro in a November 2022 law. Since then, a negotiating table has been set up, where two meetings involving international citizens have already taken place, one in Venezuela and the other in Mexico.
Since then there have been many attempts to negotiate a ceasefire in the armed conflicts. Petro even announced a bilateral ceasefire late last year, but the ELN subsequently denied the agreement.
Will the peace talks with the ELN be halted?
The head of the government’s negotiating delegation, Otty Patiño, said he would ask for a ceasefire with the guerrilla group so negotiations could continue.
“My position at the meeting that we will have with the President on Monday is to prioritize the call for a ceasefire and an end to hostilities as a necessary condition to advance civil society participation in this process,” he said.
Specialists believe that this is not the moment to sign a ceasefire and that the armed forces must show their might to put pressure on the ELN.
“Usually, a bilateral ceasefire is the result of a peace process, not the beginning. Petro’s government is trying to win quick victories and reduce violence in the country. But it was already known that this would be a mistake because of the lack of military pressure,” assesses Nestor Rosanía, executive director of the Center for Studies on Security and Peace.
A more difficult negotiation than with the FARC
The negotiation process with the guerrilla group ELN is more complex than the agreement with the FARC. The ELN has no centralized command of power: each cell has autonomy of action, making it even more difficult to reach a unified ceasefire agreement.
In seven months of government, Petro has still failed to reduce the violence erupting in the country from guerrilla groups or drug dealers. Kidnapping and extortion are common crimes in the country, according to the National Police.
Recently, military forces reported that the ELN was laying landmines in the department of Antioquia and expanding its presence in the country’s cocagrowing areas, one of its main sources of funding.
According to Rosanía, there is currently a split within the tripartite guerrilla group: the one participating in the negotiations in Mexico; the Eastern Front, which borders Venezuela and operates from the neighboring country; and the western front on the border with Panama.
The government will continue to try to reach a peace agreement
Despite the attack, Petro’s government should maintain its stance of pursuing peace negotiations. “The government will not suspend the dialogues immediately because that would mean a political defeat, especially after the failures in health and social security reform,” explains Andrés Macías, a researcher in peacebuilding processes at the Externado University of Colombia.
However, experts agree that the government needs to change its strategy. A demonstrative increase in their military strength would be a tactical shift that could also serve as an example for other armed groups negotiating “total peace.”