Okay, it’s time for the Hater’s Ball. According to NFFC ADP, these are the top 50 September fantasy drafts (127 drafts).
A good method for fantasy is to select players based on what can go right, and then once the season starts, change your mindset and think about what can go wrong. This way, you can temper expectations, nip problems in the bud, and more objectively assess what you have and what you need. So there’s something useful we can take away from these blurbs that goes beyond confronting all of our post-purchase fears.
1. Justin Jefferson, MIN, WR – (1.17 ADP): Virtually allergic to touchdowns for a No. 1 overall pick (one every 16 catches vs. one every 14 for an average WR).
2. Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, WR – (2.38): Air yards per target decreased 3.5 yards from 2021 to 2022. In 2023, a happy medium must be found to achieve the expected market share.
3. Christian McCaffrey, SF, RB — (3.32): Has played a total of 27 games over the last three seasons.
4. Tyreek Hill, MIA, WR – (4.21): Starting QB is just a hop away from handing over the reins to Mike White, who is dealing with concussion issues of his own.
5. Austin Ekeler, LAC, RB — (6): The offensive coordinator was fired because Ekeler was too involved in the passing offense and the running game lacked physicality. New OC Kellen Moore targeted RBs on 17.1% of attempts in 2022 versus 25.9% at LAC.
6. Travis Kelce, KC, TE — (6.45): Hyperextended knee (status unknown) brings the question of when the circus will leave town for Kelce clearly to the fore. Would turning 34 be a shock or should we have seen it coming?
7. Stefon Diggs, BUF, WR — (7.65): The last time we saw him, he was on record yelling at his quarterback and then reportedly asking for a trade.
8th. Bijan Robinson, ATL, RB – (10.32): First-round fantasy pick sight unseen – with major uncertainty at quarterback – seems like a tricky recipe for a championship-caliber draft.
9. CeeDee Lamb, DAL, WR — (10.48): Now there are more branches on the passing tree and arguably fewer targets given Dak Prescott’s turnover woes/expected transformation into a game manager.
10.. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, WR – (10.72): Really, REALLY hates touchdowns – one every 24.3 targets in 2022.
11. AJ Brown, PHI, WR – (11.69): This offense isn’t expected to produce many pass attempts or passing touchdowns, and he has two elite receivers competing with him for targets.
12. Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR — (11.9): When have the Jets ever been allowed to have nice things?
13. Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB – (12.17): RB7 in the second half of 2022 in PPR with five more points than Joe Mixon and Najee Harris, who are available much later.
14. Nick Chubb, CLE, RB — (13.93): A fabulous player who averaged a paltry 16 points has, for some reason, a game for his career.
15. Davante Adams, LV, WR – (15.64): The football gods conspire to prove to Adams that he is immune to the whims of QB play and coaching. “Here are your millstones, Davante. They wear!”
16. Tony Pollard, DAL, RB — (15.73): Never has, but we pay the price “He will.” Can he even be a bell calf, let alone a true bell cow?
17. Patrick Mahomes, KC, QB — (5:45 p.m.): Taking a QB so early feels like shortchanging a player for the rest of the season, but in the end you’ve at least secured the most fungible advantage in our game.
18. Cooper Kupp, LAR, WR — (19.28): Meet the new ADP. There are so many reasons to run from the player – age, injury, injury history, QB uncertainty, bad team going nowhere.
19. Jaylen Waddle, MIA, WR – (19.95): Tyreek Hill’s goals were missed by a significant margin – 30% less last year. So you’re betting on continued tremendous efficiency with a QB that the league seemed to have figured out the last time we saw him.
20. Chris Olave, NO, WR — (21.18): Funny how Davante Adams was penalized for Derek Carr at QB and now Olave is expected to break out with Carr. One TD every 30 targets in 2022.
21. Jalen Hurts, PHI, QB – (22.18): Quarterbacks are simply flying up on draft boards like Game Stop stock in the 2021 short squeeze, forcing all the lemmings to buy at inflated prices.
22. Derrick Henry, TEN, RB – (22.2): 6-foot-3+ running backs who had over 200 PPR fantasy points by age 30: Chuck Muncie in 1983, 40 years ago. (Henry will miss the 2023 season, in which he will be 30, by five days). That’s it.
23. Josh Allen, BUF, QB – (22.55): The teams that recruit these QBs so highly have no QB advantage over seven other teams and a significant disadvantage at RB/WR over four other teams. The Bills expressed frustration with Allen’s frequent (reckless) running, which was the linchpin of his fantasy scoring.
24. DeVonta Smith, PHI, WR – (22.67): An opposing Hydra’s second head in a passing attack is expected to be in the lower third of the target volume.
25. Josh Jacobs, LV, RB — (24.38): It’s just a medical fact that 400-touch RBs will be fine china next season.
26. Calvin Ridley, JAC, WR – (26.83): If you enjoyed the aftermath of Deshaun Watson’s firing, now you can see what happens to a WR who hasn’t had a snap since October 2021.
27. Tee Higgins, CIN, WR — (26.93): 101 target speed in the 12 games he shared the field with Ja’Marr Chase.
28. DK Metcalf, SEA, WR — (5/29): Geno Smith’s first 12 games of 2022: 8.1 yards per attempt, six picks. Last five games of 2022: 6.2 yards per attempt, five picks. Has the clock already struck midnight?
29. Keenan Allen, LAC, WR – (31.91): Energy vampires drain energy from their victims by treating them to Keenan Allen game protocols.
30. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, RB — (33.16): New CJ Spiller, RB64 in PPR points per game as a rookie (2010). Spiller was the ninth overall pick in the real NFL Draft and is Gibbs’ top comp on Player Profiler. Bon appetit!
31. Mark Andrews, BAL, TE – (33.8): Averaged 11.2 points per game if we exclude the 2021 season and, on paper, has the most crowded frontcourt of his career.
32. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE, RB – (34.58): Strangely, he hasn’t moved in the ADP after the team imported well-known marque veteran Ezekiel Elliott to share the carries. Few have done less to achieve as many goals in 2022 as Stevenson.
33. Najee Harris, PIT, RB — (34.73): The new Ezekiel Elliott to Jaylen Warren’s Tony Pollard. Enjoy!
34. Deebo Samuel, SF, WR – (35.83): By far the most expensive 49ers receiver, so logically you’d say he’s by far the best in real life, except he definitely isn’t (George Kittle).
35. Joe Burrow, CIN, QB – (36,46): “What if everyone drafted a QB in the first three rounds?” Mom asks after asking what we would do if everyone jumped off a bridge.
36. Travis Etienne, JAC, RB — (37.15): First trip of the season. It’s first-and-goal at the three-yard line. Which RB will be on the field for Jacksonville, Etienne or Tank Bigsby? Maybe the TD regression will not be positive.
37. Lamar Jackson, BAL, QB — (37.53): Another QB? Has everyone gone crazy? We’ll all have quarterbacks, kids.
38. Amari Cooper, CLE, WR — (37.65): The Rodney Dangerfield of wide receivers. If QB Deshaun Watson had played in a sandbox last year, the cat would have covered him over and over again.
39. Joe Mixon, CIN, RB — (38.95): A Kirkland-level talent with a well-known brand.
40. DJ Moore, CHI, WR – (39.19): The broad side of the barn that Justin Fields will try with all his might to hit.
41. Justin Herbert, LAC, QB — (40.05): Mr. Small Ball. The proverbial home run hitter who steps to the plate and scores a single with every at-bat.
42. Christian Watson, GB, WR — (41.97): Has been in the league for five minutes and has already suffered a knee, a torn hamstring and a concussion. Also had hamstring problems in college.
43. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN, WR – (43.21): It’s hard to get a WR in the top 50 when no one puts their QB in the top 30. This could actually be unprecedented.
44. Drake London, ATL, WR — (45.6): 30.5% target share with Desmond Ridder, guaranteeing 3.05 targets per game.
45. Aaron Jones, GB, RB – (47.05): We dream of 300 carries for the RBs, but even 200 is a question for Jones. He’s also a below-average receiver (5.7 yards per target) on a team that will likely score far fewer points than in 2020-2022 given the uncertainty at QB.
46. TJ Hockenson, MIN, TE – (48.23): Mr. Inefficiency for Minnesota (6.0 yards per target). His Y/T is 20th of 23 MIN TEs in the target era (minimum 50 targets). Between Jermaine Wiggins and Visanthe Shiancoe – elite company!
47. Trevor Lawrence, JAC, QB — (50.75): QB in the early round is a disgrace for the entire industry. Everything stupid is stupid again. Hey, the QBs score the most, so they should be the first 30 picks – amirite!?
48. Darren Waller, NYG, TE – (50.9): The Giants move on from Kenny Golladay by acquiring a TE whose star has faded similarly to Golladay’s when the Giants signed him. Waller: 9.8 yards/target in 2019 and 8.0 since then.
49. Justin Fields, CHI, QB – (51.68): QB inflation is a disgrace to Bidenomics, but no one is talking about it! Two-thirds of teams burned an early round pick at QB. I see a way to dramatically increase the probability of winning. Maybe draft QBs based on 2000-2021 rather than 2022?
50. Diontae Johnson, PIT, WR — (53.03): Combines terrible overall efficiency with terrible touchdown efficiency. How can we say no? Johnson would have needed 167 targets to reach 1,000 yards and a multiverse to score a TD last year.
(Top photo: Nick Cammett/Getty Images)