- “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” is expected to gross between $42 million and $55 million in its opening weekend.
- Each of the other four films in the Hunger Games series debuted with over $100 million in ticket sales at the domestic box office.
- The prequel to the $3 billion The Hunger Games franchise, based on author Suzanne Collins’ 2020 novel of the same name, is a standalone film set approximately 60 years before the voluntary tribute to Katniss Everdeen.
Tom Blyth and Rachel Zegler play Coriolanus Snow and Lucy Gray Baird in Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.
Lionsgate
“Snow lands on top.”
It’s the mantra of the main character Coriolanus Snow in the upcoming “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” and the hope of its distributor Lionsgate.
The prequel to the $3 billion The Hunger Games franchise, based on author Suzanne Collins’ 2020 novel of the same name, is a standalone film set approximately 60 years before the voluntary tribute to Katniss Everdeen. The film hits theaters this weekend.
“Ballad” is off to a solid start and is expected to gross between $42 million and $55 million, according to box office analysts, as it is the first entry in the Hunger Games saga since 2015.
“It’s an interesting position for The Hunger Games prequel because there’s suddenly an expectation that it has a chance of opening on par with The Marvels, more or less after the latter film gave in to pessimistic predictions said Shawn Robbins. Chief Analyst at BoxOffice.com.
Disney and Marvel Studios’ “The Marvels” fell well short of expectations when it hit theaters earlier this month. The film grossed $46.1 million domestically in its debut weekend, the lowest in the history of the 30-plus film franchise. The film was originally expected to gross between $75 million and $80 million, but those expectations shrank to $60 million to $65 million shortly before the premiere.
“There has always been a certain magic surrounding the Hunger Games franchise,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “This latest installment attempts to convert the goodwill generated by the series’ original films into something that promises to make a solid $50.” [million] plus debut for this fascinating and exciting origin story.”
The film centers on the young Coriolanus Snow, a man destined to become president of Panem, the fictional country on the mainland United States. It sheds light on what sparked his rise as a tyrannical ruler in later Hunger Games stories.
While box office analysts see a $50 million opening as positive given Hollywood’s recent writer and actor strikes and moviegoers’ changing moviegoing habits, “Ballad” will open significantly cheaper than its predecessors. Each of the other four films in the Hunger Games series debuted with over $100 million in ticket sales at the domestic box office.
Opening weekends of the Hunger Games franchise
- “Hunger Games” (2012) – $152.5 million
- “Hunger Games: Catching Fire” (2013) – $158 million
- “Hunger Games: The Mockingjay Part One” (2014) – $121.9 million
- “Hunger Games: The Mockingjay Part Two” (2015) – $102.6 million
Source: Comscore
There is some concern among box office analysts about whether “Ballad” will be able to recapture the audiences that came to theaters in previous installments nearly a decade ago.
“We’re talking about a prequel that doesn’t have the star power that its predecessors had with Jennifer Lawrence,” Robbins said. “The fan base is a bit older now [young adult] The genre passed its peak of popularity more than a decade ago.
Prequels are generally difficult to market outside of the established core fan base, Robbins said.
“The biggest variable here is what share of today’s young female audience this new Hunger Games story with an entirely new cast can attract,” he said.
So far, the film has received a 61% rating from 90 reviews on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, with critics claiming that the stellar cast and exciting story make the film a worthy return to the Hunger Games universe. However, some felt the film’s pace was too hectic. The script is quite faithful to Collins’ novel, which runs over 500 pages.
The film is also a standalone film and promises no future installments. The film series’ producers have stated that they have no plans to return to Panem unless Collins writes another book.
Still, “Ballad” arrives at a crucial time for Lionsgate – with the company’s split from Starz and its recent acquisition of Entertainment One from Hasbro – and for the box office. It’s the prelude to Disney’s animated film “Wish” and AppleTV+’s “Napoleon,” which are scheduled to be released on Thanksgiving next week.
“This is a covered weekend that theaters and studios definitely need, after another fall season marked by release delays and industry strikes that will also be felt throughout the holiday season,” Robbins said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Rotten Tomatoes.