As Russia’s war of attrition against Ukraine enters its sixth month, one of Moscow’s priorities is now to replenish its ground forces. If this problem affects Ukraine as well, Kiev’s biggest challenge is arms supply. For Russia, however, the challenge of human resources seems all the more sensitive as Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from a general mobilization for fear of great unpopularity – the invasion of Ukraine is officially still a “military special operation”. This situation has therefore forced him to adopt a complex, low-noise recruitment strategy since the beginning of spring, according to elements published by various Russian and Western sources in recent days.
As in many armies around the world, recruitment in Russia is an old problem. But the issue has worsened over the past decade under the influence of an unsuccessful attempt to reduce the size of the Russian army. “In the years 1990-2000, during the Chechen wars, the shortage of men went as far as forced conscription and raids, recalls Dimitri Minic, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI). This time the method is different, the bulk of the effort is trying to form volunteer battalions. »
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Moscow has two main levers for this new wave of mobilization: either the classic way of subscribing to contracts in the army, or private mercenary companies like Wagner. For the usual way, “the aim is that each of the 85 districts of the Russian Federation will field at least one volunteer battalion [BTG, selon la terminologie militaire russe], or 400 men,” explains IFRI’s Mr. Minic. System that would allow Moscow to attract up to 35,000 new recruits, according to analysts, thus recouping losses. That’s 3,800 dead according to Moscow, around 15,000 according to the latest estimates by western services and 39,000 according to the Ukrainian army – not counting the wounded.
Pressure on conscripts to sign
But this strategy, which ultimately consists of recruiting faster than Russia’s compulsory military draft would normally allow, is difficult for the Kremlin to manage. Currently, a conscript cannot be sent to the front unless he signs a contract after at least three months of service. An amendment to remove this deadline is therefore currently being passed by the Russian Parliament. Civil society officials are alarmed that there is more or less systematic pressure on conscripts to enlist in the army.
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