Washington moved to Phase 2 and provided intelligence support to Ukrainian troops. But the head of the conflict remains a mystery: Vladimir Putin
The lawnmower’s last hit was on Monday. Paris announced the expulsion of six Russian diplomats uncovered by an investigation by the DGSI, the internal security services. The halfdozen join more than 400 colleagues who have been sent back to Moscow from EU countries 30 from Italy alone on charges of being covert 007ers, one of the many fronts of the espionage war over Ukraine. The Europeans have stepped up law enforcement efforts, drastically reducing the number of Russians accredited to embassies with official functions: elements involved in intelligence gathering, recruitment, and the disinformation campaign. The Kremlin has responded with similar measures, but given the massive number of expulsions, European action at this critical juncture can have an impact and force Moscow which can still count on illegal, genuine, hidden spies to check its device. Like weaving a web for both sides: you start with a thread, build a web of relationships, spend money, then something happens that destroys it. And it begins again from time immemorial.
prevention
In this conflict, the CIA decided to go public. In order to prevent the invasion, since the autumn it has been spreading what it has collected on Russian preparations and then distributing it worldwide. Among the allies who didn’t believe us but also on the desks of the Kremlin with Director Burns’ now historic mission to Moscow to show how well informed they were. That move is at the center of much analysis today: exposing the cards in such an obvious way may have compromised whoever warned Langley. However, it was also a show of strength that allowed Washington to stay ahead of the curve when it came to rivals amid paranoia and outrageous declarations.
diplomacy
The Americans took the same approach to China. The US version claims they warned Beijing of what was about to happen and asked for cooperation to prevent the conflict. The Chinese would have acted as if nothing had happened, or at least they had not acted decisively. In this case, too, contact with the Eastern powers was anticipated and after it had been made public in order to avoid the tricks of the People’s Republic. Then, as the conflict erupted, Washington implied that China had asked Russia to postpone the attack until after the Winter Games.
War
Once the offensive was launched, civilian intelligence, the CIA, and military intelligence, Dia, transitioned to state two. An intensive surveillance of the invaders began, guaranteeing the resistance what was needed: the instructions, the conditions of the troops, the supply problems. A fullscale collaboration revolutionary as General Scott Berrier, director of Dia, had defined it conducted to correct a glaring error of judgment: they were convinced that the Ukrainians would collapse. Since that blunder, the Americans have engaged in intense work, aided by electronic equipment and satellites, an effort involving other Atlantic Pact countries and Sweden.
Of course, there is also a really secret component. Noting that intelligence specialists have been training Ukrainians since 2015, it would not be surprising if they preferred behindtheline missions, with the presence of agents and paramilitaries who might have passports from other states. These activities like sabotage or the elimination of officers are due to locals, accidents and, in the case of Belarus, opponents. Many screens, those who create them do not lack imagination and experience.
The Tsar’s men responded with the same blade. Kyiv condemned the entry of infiltrators into the cities, by teams ready to kill in order to create problems. It is likely, as has been written, that Moscow hoped to rid Zelenskyy of proRussian friends and treacherous generals thanks to the Trojan horse: two were overthrown by the government. went differently, even at home. The tsar first ordered the arrest of the head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence service, Sergei Beseda, and his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh, who were guilty of providing false information about the Ukrainian situation that endangered the special operation. Then he would have been hunting 100/150 agents of the same Fifth Service he created in 1998 for counterintelligence operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union.
The mind
The most difficult task remains to understand the workings of the Kremlin and the wishes of Vladimir Putin. published so much, too much this month about the leader’s supposed isolation, about his supposed illness, about his strategic vision, about the hypothetical dissent. Some of this news may have a basis, others are passed around to confuse, to create doubt, to make propaganda, to make the hierarchs look at each other suspiciously: Are you the Judas? They are reconstructions similar to those that circulated about Saddam or Gaddafi, sometimes also about the North Korean Kim. Almost a script, not always reliable.
April 14, 2022 (Change April 14, 2022 | 08:58)
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